Friday, December 30, 2016
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 17
The post Gold-Mining – Week 17 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Week 17 Waiver Wire
Who are the top Waiver Wire Additions for Week 17? Good luck to all!
Top Adds: Week 17
1. Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay – Doug Martin is expected to be inactive in Week 17, so Rodgers is a must-grab and likely at least a must-start for you at flex, unless you’re stacked at flex.
2. Adam Thielen, Minnesota – Thielen had a 200-yard game last week and needs to be owned and started in larger leagues as a WR3.
3. Alfred Blue, Houston – Blue got 25 touches in Week 17, and Miller is not likely to play Week 17 (as of now).
More Week 17 Adds
J.J. Nelson, Arizona
Paul Perkins, New York Giants
Zach Zenner, Detroit
Charles Clay, Buffalo
The post Week 17 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, December 27, 2016
DraftKings NHL Picks: December 27th Daily Top Plays
DraftKings NHL Picks: December 27th Tonight’s slate features 10 games with New York (3.2), Pittsburgh (3.1), Dallas (3), and Calgary (2.9) holding the highest projected team totals. I’ll be targeting players from these teams in cash games. Here are my DraftKings NHL picks. OTT vs. NYR (-170), O/U: 5.5 BOS vs. CLB (-135), O/U: 5 […]
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Monday, December 26, 2016
Podcast: Episode 123: Week 17 Streaming and 2016’s DGAF Episode
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Thursday, December 22, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 16
The post Gold-Mining – Week 16 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Week 16 Sit Start Advice
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2017 Top 12 Fantasy Players
Already looking to the 2017 fantasy football season? Whether you’re in dynasty leagues or redraft leagues, or both, let’s look at the Top 10 Overall Fantasy Players heading into 2017. This will be angled more toward redraft leaguers, but clearly since we are looking into the future, this information also helps all you dynasty owners out there.
1.01 – Leaven Bell (RB/PIT)
1.02 – David Johnson (RB/AZ)
1.03 – Ezekiel Elliott (RB/DAL)
How interesting is it that the RB is back! This is something I have predicted for years, the return of the RB being king. While the WRs right below are arguable top 1-4 overall players in PPR for 2017 and beyond, having one of the top 3RBs will give fantasy owners a clear advantage in 2017.
1.04 – Antonio Brown (WR/PIT)
1.05 – Julio Jones (WR/ATL)
1.06 – Odell Beckham (WR/NYG)
The above 3WRs clearly have No. 1 overall upside and command a look at that value. So, technically, this upcoming season, we have 6 players that are 100 percent arguable at that 1.01 value. Wow. Again, though, having one of those top 3RBs is huge.
1.07 – Melvin Gordon (RB/SD)
1.08 – Mike Evans (WR/TB)
1.09 – Todd Gurley (RB/LA)
1.10 – AJ Green (WR/CIN)
1.11 – DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN)
1.12 – DeAnde Hopkins (WR/HOU)
This next group is loaded with risk. Sure, any one of them could be top 5 at their position in 2017. Heck, any one of these guys could be top 1-3 at their position, but every single name in the 1.07-1.12 list above has big risk, from Murray and injury, to Evans and consistency, to Gurley/Hopkins and seeing no signs of life through all of 2016, to AJ Green and injury… etc, etc, etc.
Just missed the list, but deserving of top 7-12 consideration: Devonta Freeman, Jay Ajayi, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Rob Gronkowski, Amari Cooper
The post 2017 Top 12 Fantasy Players appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Podcast: Episode 122: Week 16 Streaming and Dysentery Twitter
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Week 16 Waiver Wire Grabs
Below you will find out top Week 16 Waiver Wire Recommendations. Good luck this week in your fantasy football championship game.
1 Dontrelle Inman SD (11) WR
2 Tyler Lockett SEA (5) WR
3 Justin Forsett DEN (11) RB
4 J.J. Nelson ARI (9) WR
5 Eli Rogers PIT (8) WR
6 Marqise Lee JAC (5) WR
7 Robby Anderson NYJ (11) WR
8 Hunter Henry SD (11) TE
9 Dwayne Washington DET (10) RB
10 Kenny Stills MIA (8) WR
11 John Brown ARI (9) WR
12 Dion Sims MIA (8) TE
13 Cameron Meredith CHI (9) WR
14 Anquan Boldin DET (10) WR
15 Tyler Boyd CIN (9) WR
16 Michael Floyd NE (9) WR
The post Week 16 Waiver Wire Grabs appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Week 15 Sit Start Advice
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Gold-Mining – Week 15
The post Gold-Mining – Week 15 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Tips for winning your fantasy football league
You’ve made it this far, now it’s time to close the show in your fantasy football league.
With just a couple of weeks to go in the season, it’s easy to second-guess yourself into a season-ending mistake. Luckily, you have the pros from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio to steer you toward your league’s championship.
Whether you need specifics about which position to keep an eye on, or just a push to make a bold but calculated decision, Her Fantasy Football’s Brandon Marianne Lee and SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’s Ray Flowers have your back with these tips.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Podcast: Episode 121: Week 15 Streaming and Rebranding
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Week 15 Waiver Wire
Looking for Week 15 Waiver Wire Recommendations? We got you covered below! Good luck to all of you heading into Week 15!
Bilal Powell (RB/NYJ)
Forte suffered a knee injury in Week 14, and he is hearing cracking and popping in the knee. While we wait for MRI results today, grab Powell. Even if Forte were to play Week 15, Powell is sure to see more and more carries as Forte won’t be 100 percent. If he sits, Powell has very strong RB3 type value.
Dontrelle Inman (WR/SD)
His past three games: 6/119/1TD, 2/49/1TD and 6/71/1TD. He is a WR3 for Weeks 15 and 16… no question.
Kenneth Farrow (RB/PIT)
Melvin Gordon was carted off the field in Week 14 with a hip injury. MRI results will let us know if Gordon is for sure out Weeks 15 and 16 (or longer). Ronnie Hillman also deserves consideration, as he will likely split some carries with Farrow, and a hot hand approach isn’t out of the question. Keep in mind that Hillman is better in pass protection, so he could find himself on the field more than anyone expects. It’s hard to predict this situation, know that if you plan to use either Farrow or Hillman this week.
Justin Forsett (RB/DEN)
Forsett out-touched Booker last week, but Juwan Thompson could also see more work moving forward. This situation is a mess.
More Week 15 Adds
Pierre Garcon (WR/WAS)
Charles Sims (RB/TB)
Robby Anderson (WR/NYJ)
Tyler Boyd (WR/CIN)
Marqise Lee (WR/JAC)
The post Week 15 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
NFL FanDuel Cash Game Lineup For Week 14
NFL FanDuel Cash Game Lineup For Week 14 Wow where has the time gone? Week 14 is upon us and the playoffs in most season long leagues are starting this week. As we look at my NFL DFS week 14 top Fanduel cash lineup, one thing to keep in mind is the weather, as there […]
NFL FanDuel Cash Game Lineup For Week 14 - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports
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Thursday, December 8, 2016
Week 14 Sit Start Advice
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Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 14
The post Gold-Mining – Week 14 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Week 14 Radio Show (Tues Show)
Below is Russ Bliss’ Week 14 fantasy football radio show on NBC Sports Radio 1060am. “The Red Zone” is the world’s longest-running fantasy football radio show. This week, Russ and Smitty discuss everything Week 14, from injuries, to start and bench advice and more.
The post Week 14 Radio Show (Tues Show) appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Podcast: Episode 120: Week 14 Streaming and Jug Buddies
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Regular Season Recap: Apex Expert Writers League
It’s always important to reflect on competitive fantasy leagues to refine your strategy. Few leagues are as competitive as the Apex Expert Writers League, where some of the biggest names in fantasy football battle it out. With starting lineups of three wide receivers and a flex and PPR scoring, the draft was extremely wide receiver heavy. Let’s examine how the regular season was won.
The top seed was clinched by CD Carter, who started his draft with four wide receivers. While not all of them panned out (I’m looking at you, Jeremy Maclin), Mike Evans proved to be one of the best picks of the draft. Despite inconsistency in his second season, Evans has become one of the league’s most consistent receivers in year three.
Although Carter avoided running backs early, he found running back value in the middle and late rounds of the draft, selecting Latavius Murray, DeMarco Murray, and Spencer Ware. Selecting DeMarco Murray in eighth round feels comical after his impressive first season as a Titan. The savvy pickup of Kirk Cousins before his hot stretch run helped Carter receive consistent production out of his quarterback position.
The second seed was clinched by Shawn Siegele, who started the draft with Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Greg Olsen, and Travis Kelce. True to his Zero RB roots, Siegele didn’t take running back until the seventh round. Siegele drafted Stefon Diggs as the 45th wide receiver off the board – he is currently WR9 in fantasy points per game.
With Sammy Watkins injured, Siegele was able to replace his production by securing game breaker Jamison Crowder in the 14th round. Selected as the 75th WR, Crowder is currently WR15. In the 7th and 9th rounds, Siegele was able to find productive running backs in Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the success of Mike Clay – the only owner who did not select a wide receiver with one of his first two picks (Note: he didn’t take a WR until round seven). While Clay didn’t receive a bye week in the first round of the playoffs, he did lead the regular season in points scored. Clay started the draft with four running backs: David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, and Eddie Lacy. While two didn’t pan out, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell lead all players in fantasy points per game and are likely the top two picks of 2017 drafts.
With Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Graham, Clay built his team from the outside in – leaving wide receiver as a position to stream players. Clay let the draft come to him and selected the players that he believed brought the most value to his team, regardless of position. As the leading point scorer during the regular season, clearly the strategy worked for him.
There are a couple of takeaways from this league: Firstly, there are clearly many different drafting strategies that can win a fantasy league: regardless of whether you draft running backs, wide receivers or tight ends early. Secondly, selecting players who out-produce their draft position is a method that consistently delivers league winning results.
The post Regular Season Recap: Apex Expert Writers League appeared first on Apex Fantasy Football Money Leagues.
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Fantasy Football Loser’s Day
Were you the unfortunate one that thought Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton would lead you to a fantasy football championship? Did you think wide receivers Allen Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars and DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans would be the foundation of a contender?
If so, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio is the place for you.
Today is Fantasy Football Loser’s Day. The hosts are allowing you to vent with everyone who missed the playoffs this season.
If injuries to Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski derailed your team, now is the time to let your voice be heard.
Call in or tweet @SiriusXMFantasy all day long about the players who let you down and where it all went wrong. An entire day is dedicated to the fantasy football losers. Sound off nationwide about your losing team!
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Week 14 Waiver Wire Advice
Below are our Week 14 Waiver Wire recommendations.
Ladarius Green (TE/PIT)
He appears healthy, and he pulled in 6 receptions for 110 yards and 1TD in Week 13. He’s a strong back-end TE1 moving forward — for as long as he stays healthy that is.
Malcolm Mitchell / Chris Hogan (WR/NE)
He had 8 receptions for 82 yards in Week 13. Rob Gronkowski is out, so that almost guarantees solid targets for Mitchell moving forward! Same goes for Hogan, who will now see more targets moving forward. He pulled in 23 yards and a TD in Week 13.
Mike Gillislee (RB/BUF)
Gillislee would have great numbers per start if McCoy ever missed time. He is even flex-worthy each week in larger leagues, as he could score a TD even in his sharing situation.
Dontrelle Inman (WR/SD)
He seems to find the end zone lately, scoring last week and the week prior.
Adam Thielen (WR/MIN)
He has pulled in at least 5 receptions and at least 50 yards in each of his last three games. Last week, in Week 13, he pulled in 7 receptions for 86 yards.
The post Week 14 Waiver Wire Advice appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Monday, December 5, 2016
FanDuel NBA DFS – Fantasy Forecast Week of December 5
FanDuel NBA – Weekly Fantasy Forecast for December 5th Karl-Anthony Towns was on my radar heavy for this week and sure enough he did spectacular on his $8,800 FanDuel NBA bill against the Knicks at home, posting a career high in points of 47 to go with 18 rebounds for 75.6 FDP. His next 2 games he put up […]
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Saturday, December 3, 2016
Week 13 Preview
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) (vs. Colts)
Garbage time isn’t pretty to watch but Blake Bortles over the last two seasons is proof that it can create great fantasy production. This week the Jets will play the Colts 31st rank pass defense and a rather hot offense assuming Luck is under center. Fitzpatrick could make some mistakes but expect him to get a ton of yards in this game and likely a few TDs with that garbage time potential.
RB Spencer Ware (KC) (vs. Falcons)
Ware is one of the most overdue players for a TD given his workload. Although regression to the mean acts over the course of a time period and not the next upcoming individual week; the Falcons’ inability to stop the RB position, especially through the air, is enough to confidently play Ware and expect this to be the week that he makes it into the end zone.
WR Sammy Watkins (BUF) (vs. Raiders)
Watkins was a on a snap count last game playing only 45% of total snaps, yet he still recorded 80yds. This week the Bills will be without Robert Woods, Percy Harvin, and possibly Charles Clay (Game-time decision). If Watkins’ snap count increases as expected he could be in for a massive performance.
Below is the Average Opponents Defensive Rank Per Position for the Playoff Weeks of 14,15, and 16. (Standard League Scoring)
The players are listed in order based on the appeal of schedule (i.e. higher number is better)
| QB | RB | ||||||
| Rivers | SD | 26.66 | Stewart | CAR | 27.66 | ||
| Siemian/Lynch | DEN | 24 | Hill | CIN | 27.66 | ||
| Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 23 | McCoy | BUF | 24.33 | ||
| Carr | OAK | 22.66 | Gurley | LA | 23 | ||
| Goff | LA | 22.33 | Hyde | SF | 22 | ||
| Ryan | ATL | 21.66 | Miller | HOU | 21.33 | ||
| Barkley | CHI | 21.66 | Crowell | CLE | 21.33 | ||
| Newton | CAR | 20.66 | Murray | OAK | 21 | ||
| Bradford | MIN | 20.66 | Gordon | SD | 19.66 | ||
| Manning | NYG | 20.66 | Martin | TB | 19.66 | ||
| Osweiler | HOU | 20.33 | McKinnon/Asiata | MIN | 19.33 | ||
| Winston | TB | 19.66 | Forte | NYJ | 19 | ||
| Kaepernick | SF | 19 | Ware | KC | 19 | ||
| Taylor | BUF | 18.33 | Freeman/Coleman | ATL | 18.33 | ||
| Smith | KC | 18 | Gore | IND | 18 | ||
| Romo | DAL | 16.33 | Murray | TEN | 17.33 | ||
| Cousins | WAS | 16 | Dixon/West | BAL | 16.66 | ||
| McCown/RG3 | CLE | 15 | Johnson | ARI | 16 | ||
| Dalton | CIN | 14 | Howard | CHI | 15.33 | ||
| Brees | NO | 14 | Ingram/Hightower | NO | 14 | ||
| Stafford | DET | 14 | Sproles/Mathews | PHI | 13.66 | ||
| Palmer | ARI | 13.66 | Blount | NE | 13.66 | ||
| Roethlisberger | PIT | 13 | Ivory/Yeldon | JAC | 13.33 | ||
| Flacco | BAL | 12.66 | Elliot | DAL | 13 | ||
| Wilson | SEA | 12.33 | Bell | PIT | 12.66 | ||
| Wentz | PHI | 11.66 | Rawls | SEA | 12 | ||
| Luck | IND | 11.33 | Ajayi | MIA | 11.66 | ||
| Mariota | TEN | 11.33 | Booker | DEN | 11 | ||
| Tannehill | MIA | 9.33 | Riddick | DET | 7.66 | ||
| Bortles | JAC | 8.66 | Starks | GB | 7 | ||
| Rodgers | GB | 8 | Kelley | WAS | 6.33 | ||
| Brady | NE | 7.33 | Jennings | NYG | 5.66 | ||
| WR | TE | ||||||
| Jones/Sanu | ATL | 25.66 | Gates/Henry | SD | 28.33 | ||
| Crowder/Garcon/Jackson | WAS | 25.33 | CHI | 27 | |||
| Williams | SD | 24.33 | Clay | BUF | 24.66 | ||
| Thomas/Sanders | DEN | 23 | Witten | DAL | 22.66 | ||
| Cooper/Crabtree | OAK | 21.66 | Olsen | CAR | 21.33 | ||
| Kerley | SF | 21.33 | Fiedorowicz | HOU | 20.66 | ||
| Britt/Austin | LA | 19.66 | Tye | NYG | 20.33 | ||
| Jones/Tate | DET | 19.66 | Rudolph | MIN | 19.66 | ||
| Marshall/Enunwa | NYJ | 18.66 | Eifert | CIN | 19 | ||
| Diggs | MIN | 18.66 | Ebron | DET | 18.66 | ||
| Hill/Maclin | KC | 18.33 | Brate | TB | 18.66 | ||
| Beckham/Shepard | NYG | 18 | Barnidge | CLE | 17.66 | ||
| Meredith/Wilson | CHI | 17 | Kelce | KC | 17.33 | ||
| Evans | TB | 16.33 | Hooper | ATL | 17 | ||
| Baldwin | SEA | 16.33 | McDonald | SF | 17 | ||
| Edelman | NE | 16.33 | Kendricks | LA | 17 | ||
| Benjamin | CAR | 16 | Gresham | ARI | 17 | ||
| Matthews | PHI | 16 | Reed/Davis | WAS | 14.66 | ||
| Watkins | BUF | 15.66 | Doyle/Allen | IND | 14.66 | ||
| Landry/Parker | MIA | 15.33 | Ertz | PHI | 14.33 | ||
| Thomas/Cooks/Snead | NO | 14.66 | Green | PIT | 14.33 | ||
| Brown | PIT | 13 | Walford | OAK | 14 | ||
| Matthews | TEN | 13 | NYJ | 14 | |||
| Bryant/Beasley | DAL | 12.66 | Fleener | NO | 13 | ||
| Fitzgerald/Floyd | ARI | 12.33 | Thomas | JAC | 12.66 | ||
| Nelson/Adams/Cobb | GB | 12 | Cook | GB | 12 | ||
| Robinson/Hurns/Lee | JAC | 11.66 | Graham | SEA | 11.33 | ||
| Boyd/LaFell | CIN | 11.33 | Bennett | NE | 9.66 | ||
| Smith Sr./Wallace | BAL | 11 | Pitta | BAL | 9.66 | ||
| Hopkins | HOU | 10.66 | DEN | 9.33 | |||
| Pryor | CLE | 10 | MIA | 9.33 | |||
| Hilton/Moncrief | IND | 9.66 | Walker | TEN | 7.33 | ||
| D/ST | |
| DEN | 26 |
| SEA | 25 |
| NE | 24.33 |
| NO | 22.66 |
| MIN | 21.66 |
| HOU | 21.33 |
| SF | 21.33 |
| CIN | 20.66 |
| WAS | 20.66 |
| SD | 20.33 |
| TEN | 20 |
| JAC | 19.33 |
| OAK | 18.33 |
| GB | 17.66 |
| CHI | 16.33 |
| ATL | 15.33 |
| CLE | 15 |
| ARI | 15 |
| LA | 14 |
| IND | 13.33 |
| KC | 12.66 |
| PIT | 12.66 |
| BUF | 12 |
| DAL | 12 |
| CAR | 11.66 |
| PHI | 11.66 |
| DET | 11.33 |
| MIA | 11 |
| NYJ | 10.33 |
| TB | 9.66 |
| BAL | 6.66 |
| NYG | 6.33 |
The post Week 13 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Thursday, December 1, 2016
Week 13 Sit Start Advice
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Gold-Mining – Week 13
The post Gold-Mining – Week 13 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Radio: Week 13 Show (Tues)
Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ Week 13 Fantasy Football Radio Show (The Red Zone on NBC Sports Radio 1060am), which is the longest running fantasy football radio program in the world.
The post Radio: Week 13 Show (Tues) appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Podcast: Episode 119: Week 13 Streaming and The Boy Young Boy Band
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Monday, November 28, 2016
Week 13 Waiver Wire
Dion Lewis (NE/RB)
(Available in near 50% of all leagues)
In Week 12, he ran the ball six times for 24 yards and added four catches on seven targets for 34 yards. Sure, he is sharing carries with James White and LeGarrette Blount, but he has a strong chance to bump White out of a lot of playing time. And, since he pulls in passes more than he runs, Blount and Lewis can co-exist. There is risk, but he has low-end RB1 appeal if a full go and getting those touches!
Tyreek Hill (KC/WR)
(Available in near 65-70% of all leagues)
Hill scored a rushing, receiving and return touchdown against the Broncos, becoming the first to do all three in a single game since Gale Sayers back in 1965. He isn’t likely available in any dynasty leagues, but check just in case. However, in redraft, he makes a fine WR3/4 and he is available in 60-70% of most leagues.
Tim Hightower (NO/RB)
(Available in near 50% of all leagues)
Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower keep producing awesome numbers together in New Orleans. It’s crazy how both of these rushers keep thriving. In Week 12, Hightower totaled 105 yards (51 rushing, 54 receiving) all while Ingram ran for 146 yards and 1TD, while also pulling in a receiving score. Mark Ingram was insane in Week 12, that needs to be said. He has two 140+ rushing games in the last four games. He also has 4TDs in that span. While Hightower could have some bad games coming up should Ingram continue to shine, it’s important to note how productive one of these rushers would be if starting by themselves. Hightower is a must add for that reason, and he also has strong flex value right now in larger leagues.
Malcolm Mitchell (NE/WR)
(Available in near 80-90% of all leagues)
Last week, he pulled in 4/98/1TD… this past weekend, against the Jets, he pulled in 5/42/2TDs. He’s a must-player WR3/4 in larger leagues (with upside for more), and he is a potential gem in dynasty (and not likely available in competitive dynasty leagues).
Wendell Smallwood (PHI/RB)
(Available in near 70% of all leagues)
Ryan Mathews is officially out for Monday night’s Week 12 game against the Packers, and while Darren Sproles is expected to play, Smallwood has super-strong flex value in this Monday night battle. Smallwood isn’t likely open in any dynasty leagues, but clearly redraft leaguers have continued to leave him on the waiver wire. Mistake!
More Week 13 Adds:
C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU/TE)
Tyler Boyd (CIN/WR)
Anquan Boldin (DET/@NO)
Mohamed Sanu (ATL/WR)
The post Week 13 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, November 26, 2016
Week 12 Preview
The favorite line of my high school soccer coach was “you can’t let bad teams hang around.” In the NFL we often see games that stay close even when they shouldn’t be. Among other teams, the Falcons (-.574) and Giants (-.492) have a habit of playing down or up to their opponents. As a result of these scenarios, a QB’s performance is generally negatively correlated with his own defense (-.54). Correlation is the linear relationship between two variables. The number it produces falls between -1 (indicating a negative relationship) and +1 (indicating a positive relationship). Correlation is useful because it can indicate a positive or negative causal relationship and its relativity (how close it is to 1 or -1). The league-wide correlation matrix for the 2016 season thus far is:
| QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | TE | K | D/ST | OPP D/ST | |
| QB | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.12 | -0.21 | -0.54 |
| RB | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| WR1 | 0.43 | -0.10 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.19 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| WR2 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.20 |
| TE | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.12 | 1.00 | 0.05 | -0.09 | -0.18 |
| K | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.19 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.19 | -0.33 |
| D/ST | -0.21 | 0.06 | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.09 | 0.19 | 1.00 | -0.07 |
| OPP D/ST | -0.54 | -0.32 | -0.26 | -0.20 | -0.18 | -0.33 | -0.07 | 1.00 |
Note the 1’s along the diagonal and identical upper/lower triangles that repeat the correlations between all other two variables combinations. You read the matrix by matching a column to a row and reading the correlation value that compares the two. The full excel spreadsheet with team-by-team correlation matrices can be found here: position-correlations-2016.
The most notable correlation is between QB and opposing D/ST. The two are negatively correlated (-.54) and give us two important things to know. First, and this may be the obvious, but never to play both a QB and the opposing D/ST. Secondly, playing the opposing defense to your Head-to-Head opponent’s QB or vise versa can reap extra benefits if you have confidence that you are choosing the better play between the two. RB also has a moderately negative correlation with opposing D/ST (-.32). Last week, Jaret made an excellent comment on when to use this to your advantage: “If you are favored, you could view the negative correlation between your two high value assets as a hedge: it’s roughly 37% less likely both will stink or both will have a big game than if they were not playing each other. But if you are the underdog, you’ll want to avoid hedging, and likely play only one. You can’t have off setting assets capping your upside if you’re already the underdog.”
Not only can correlation help explain the phenomenon of playing an opposing defense to one of your players, but it can also explain stacking, which is the idea of having two players of the same team to reap the benefits of correlation amongst them. The second largest correlation is between QB and WR1 (+.43). There is a drop off from QB down to WR2 (+.35) but certainly a notable correlation. The correlation explains the idea that if a QB has a great game then in response the WR1 of that same team is likely to as well. The inverse of this also applies in that if a QB has a poor game then the WR1 is likely to perform poorly as well. WR1 with WR2 or TE performance is completely uncorrelated (+.02~+.01). This statistic says that it is generally neither beneficial nor harmful to have/play both the #1 and #2 WR receiver or TE of a team. What the correlation statistic does not account for is the ceiling that this places on those players combined number of total points. Another pairing that lacks correlation is QB with RB (+.02); however individual teams like the Colts (-.58 correlation) and the Buccaneers (+.67 correlation) show the variances amongst observations. Looking at the individual team correlations can provide valuable insight into a team’s correlation trends, but the numbers are expected to regress to the mean (league-average) in the future and situations within the teams often change their correlations. The fact that QB-RB is not negatively correlated means that they generally do not take away from each other except in terms of ceiling as mentioned before. In a 50/50 league or standard fantasy league where you wind up with both players, if the matchup is right, there is no problem playing both.
Some other notable absolute correlations for individual teams are:
Vikings QB(Hill/Bradford)-WR1(Diggs/Thielen) (+.86)
Jaguars QB(Bortles)-WR2(Hurns) (+.76)
Lions QB(Stafford)-OPP D/ST (-.80)
Dolphins RB(Foster/Ajayi)-OPP D/ST (-.74) (might explain Dolphins winning streak since, Ajayi breakout.)
Steelers WR1(Brown)-OPP D/ST (-.84)
Ravens TE(Pitta)-OPP D/ST (-.70)
*NOTE: WR1 is the receiver that was projected to get the most points at that position for each individual week. Therefore, if a starter was injured the “next man up” replaced him in the observations for all positions. If a player was injured during the game, his points count towards his slotted position for that week and he was not replaced.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
RB Rashad Jennings (NYG) (vs. Browns)
Just like last season, Jennings is picking up steam in the second half of the season and has cemented a firm grip on the starting RB job for the Giants. Terrence West (BAL) is the only RB that the Browns defense has been able to somewhat limit this season. There are too many positive trends here to not play Jennings.
RB Doug Martin (TB) (vs. Seahawks)
Since coming back from injury, Martin has faced the number 4 and number 11 fantasy points against rush defenses. As his carries increase and his opponents become easier, look for him to put up dominate RB1 performances.
WR Jordan Mathews (PHI) (vs. Packers)
The Packers have given up 9TD’s to WR’s the last 4 weeks alone. This number has propelled them into 32nd in the league against the fantasy WR. Mathews the WR1 for Philadelphia has been targeted 10+ times each of his last 4 games and has consistently put up a floor of about 60yds (See Weekly Gold Mining for more great insights). He comes in as an undervalued option in Daily Fantasy and someone who should be inserted into any standard league lineup.
The post Week 12 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings
WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings are here! Happy Thanksgiving to all of my American readers! I am not working on Thursday and plan to enjoy the full slate of games. Week 11 saw more injuries, more breakout performances, and Doug Baldwin throwing a touchdown pass! It was an exciting week […]
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Gold-Mining – Week 12
The post Gold-Mining – Week 12 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Happy Thanksgiving - Week 12 Sit Start Advice
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Week 12 Buy Lows and Sell Highs + Radio Full Show
Each week, Russ Bliss hosts his weekly Fantasy Football Radio Show, the Red Zone, on NBC Sports Radio 1060am. This is the longest running fantasy football radio show in the world, going on 20 years. Listen to Smitty and Russ discuss everything Week 12, from add/drops, start bench advice, injuries, trade advice and more.
Play Week 12 Buy/Sell Play 1 Hour Week 12 Show
The post Week 12 Buy Lows and Sell Highs + Radio Full Show appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Podcast: Episode 118: Week 12 Streaming and You Haven’t Had a Good One Twitter
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Week 12 Waiver Wire
Hey all, here are your Week 12 Waiver Wire Additions. Note: Make sure Rob Kelley isn’t available in your league. He shouldn’t be, as we talked about him all off-season and he has been on our pickup list for weeks. Jamison Crowder is another that shouldn’t be available.
Thomas Rawls / Alex Collins (RB/SEA) – With CJ Prosise out for the regular season, Rawls is in the starting role. But, Alex Collins is a the better player, keep that in mind and grab both accordingly.
Sammy Watkins (WR/BUF)
– Despite talking about him more than once on our Add/Drop Lists, he is still available in a lot of leagues. He could play some in Week 12 and be good to go by the following week.
Tim Hightower (RB/NO) – Mark Ingram is currently in the concussion protocol. In his absence last week, Hightower was awesome in Week 11 on his 12 carries, rushing for 69 yards, and he pulled in 8 passes for 57 yards. He has flex like value even with Ingram playing, but if Ingram sits Week 12, Hightower has RB2 value.
Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI) – Both Ryan Mathews (knee) and Darren Sproles (fractured rib) left last week, but both could return this week, or both could sit. This makes Smallwood, a guy we talked up during the off-season (and in prior Waiver Wire Articles), a strong pickup if for some reason he is still available.
Christine Michael (RB/GB) – Cut by Seattle and now with Green Bay, it’s tough to say what is in store for Michael. He is proven, but also doubted by that Seattle coaching staff. Will Green Bay actually use him? If they do, he has a ton of hidden value. Grab him!
Mike Gillislee (RB/BUF) – LeSean McCoy (finger surgery) could actually play Week 12, but that seems optimistic given he is having surgery. We talked Gillislee up all season, he should be owned, and he should already be owned by all McCoy owners.
More Pick-Ups:
Kirk Cousins (QB/WAS)
Kenneth Dixon (RB/BAL)
Tyler Boyd (WR/CIN)
The post Week 12 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, November 19, 2016
Week 11 Preview
On Last Week’s Preview Article, msh3rrodd posed this interesting question:
“I have the Vikings defense (great defense) vs. David Johnson (great RB) on the same team and they’re playing each other this week. My question is, do you start your own defense against your RB1? Thanks!”
The best explanation for this dilemma and the similar others such as playing a QB and the opposing defense is through correlation matrices. Correlation is the linear relationship between two variables. The number it produces falls between -1 (indicating a negative relationship) and +1 (indicating a positive relationship). Correlation is useful because it can indicate a positive or negative casual relationship and its relativity (how close it is to 1 or -1). An example of such is when a QB’s points go up consequently the opposing defense’s points go down, a correlation would indicate a negative relationship and tell you the extent of it. A correlation matrix is simply a grid of the correlations between all the variables. It looks like so:
| V1 | V2 | V3 | |
| V1 | 1 | .79 | .48 |
| V2 | .79 | 1 | -.62 |
| V3 | .48 | -.62 | 1 |
With 1’s along the diagonal and identical upper/lower triangles that repeat the correlations between all other two variables combinations.
Not only can correlation help explain the phenomenon of playing an opposing defense to one of your players, but it can also explain stacking, which is the idea of having two players of the same team to reap the benefits of correlation amongst them. I am currently in the process of gathering the data to create a correlation matrix that will include the standard scoring league variables of QB, RB, WR1, WR2, TE, K, D/ST, and Opposing D/ST. Be on the lookout for that large analysis next week.
Back to the answer of msh3rrodd’s question though:
Not only should a league-wide correlation between RB and Opposing D/ST be looked at, but also the Arizona Cardinals correlations individually.
Opposing D/ST’s have respectfully scored 3, -5, 21, 13, 2, -2, 9, 18, 7 (ESPN) points against the Cardinals. The average of those scores is 7.33, which is greater than the league average of 5.48; therefore playing a defense, especially a good one like the Vikings against the Cardinals would typically be a good decision other factors aside. David Johnson’s correlation against opposing defenses is (-.369). To my surprise, this number was approximately average for this type of variable interaction league-wide. It appears that the play of Carson Palmer (-.438) and Larry Fitzgerald (-.447) greater dictate how many points a defense will score against the Cardinals and vise versa. My analysis is that if David Johnson has a good game, he is sure to limit the Vikings Defense and if the most amount of possible points scored is your goal, than it might be best to stream a defense. On the other hand, David Johnson has no greater effect on how much an opposing defense is able to score than any average starting RB in the league. Even if Johnson has a good game, the Vikings D/ST can still put up a “good” number so long as Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald do not also excel. To me, this decision comes down to the alternative options at D/ST and how one projects Carson Palmer/Larry Fitzgerald to do.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Andrew Luck (IND) (vs. Titans)
The Titans began the year as one of the better pass-defense defenses, but have since forth declined to 27th in the league. Luck finally has all of his weapons healthy and is poised for a strong performance in this important division battle. The Vegas Over/Under for this game is 53; this mark is considered extremely high compared to the average this season of about 45. The larger mark is an indicator that this game should be high scoring filled with fantasy successes.
RB C.J. Prosise (SEA) (vs. Eagles)
Christian Michael has been cut this past week in anticipation of Thomas Rawls’ return. The transaction also indicated that the Seahawks had confidence in what they saw out of C.J. Prosise. Later on in the week, it was announced that Prosise will start and do not expect this to be a Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles situation with Pete Carroll at Coach. Carroll likes to stick with one back and will likely do so going forward with one of these two. It’s more likely Rawls long-term but given the “starter” status and value of Prosise he’s the better play this week.
WR Danny Amendola (NE) (vs. 49ers)
This is a super deep sleeper pick, but like Tyreek Hill last week, he can help you pick surrounding expensive players in daily fantasy, and provide a speculative flex start in deep standard leagues. After least week’s defeat, the Patriots are sure to come out guns blazing against the terrible 49ers’ defense. Brady will be missing two of his favorite targets this season, Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. If Brady continues his historic % of passing plays vs. % of running plays in this contest, then multiple receivers will be the beneficiaries. Given this, why not next-in-line Danny Amendola?
The post Week 11 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Week 11 Sit Start Advice
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Radio: Week 11 (WED Show) – IDP
Check out this Week 11 fantasy football radio show, which is the Wednesday IDP Show. Russ Bliss has the longest running radio program in the world, going on 20 years. His show, The Red Zone, is on NBC Sports Radio 1060am every Tuesday and Wednesday during the fantasy football season.
The post Radio: Week 11 (WED Show) – IDP appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 11
The post Gold-Mining – Week 11 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Draftkings NFL Cash Game Lineup – Week 11
Draftkings NFL Cash Game Lineup – Week 11 The 2016 season is chugging along and we are already in week 11! By this point, we are already locked into the players that are performing well and it is a matter of adjusting for match-ups, injuries and value plays that may present themselves each week. Some […]
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Fantasy Impact with Lisa Ann: Week 11
We’re entering Week 11 of the fantasy football season, and there’s a good chance that you’re looking for one or two more sleepers to take you to the top of the standings. Luckily for you, fantasy junkie Lisa Ann has a tight end, wide receiver and a kicker that can have a true impact on your fantasy football team.
Catch “Lisa Ann Does Fantasy” every Monday at 10 p.m. ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Ch. 87 (Sirius 210).
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Week 11 Buy Low Sell High
Below we have our Week 11 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant and more.
Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)
The post Week 11 Buy Low Sell High appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Week 11 Radio Show (on hour long)
Below is our Week 11 Fantasy Football Radio Show. Listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty as they breakdown Week 11 Sleepers, Breakouts, Trade For candidates, Start Bench Advice, Waiver Wire Advice, and more.
Russ Bliss has had his Red Zone Radio Program on the air for 20 years now, which makes his fantasy football program the longest-running fantasy football radio show in the world.
The post Week 11 Radio Show (on hour long) appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Podcast: Episode 117: Week 11 Streaming and Stepping on Toys
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Week 11 Waiver Wire
Hey folks… Week 11 Waiver Wire Recommendations are below. Enjoy!
Rob Kelley | RB WAS
Despite being on our Waiver Wire List a few times this year already, Rob Kelley is still available in about half of all leagues. He has excellent flex-type value, if not higher, if he continues to get starter carries. In Week 10, he rushed 22 times for 97 yards in Week 10 against the Vikings.
CJ Prosise / Thomas Rawls | RB SEA
C.J. Prosise carried the ball 17 times for 66 yards in Week 10 against the Patriots. He also pulled in seven passes for 87 yards. Christine Michael was hurt (hamstring) in this one, and Thomas Rawls is expected back from injury, so there is a chance he has a big role moving forward, but there is also a chance either Michael or Rawls get those starter carries. Grab both Prosise and Rawls in case Michael falters or gets replaced, as the starter in SEA has strong value.
Eli Rogers | WR PIT
In Week 1, Eli Rogers pulled in 6 passes for 59 yards and 1TD, but he has been kind of banged up until recently. His last two games: 6/103/0TDs and 4/42/1TD. He easily has strong fantasy WR4-type value, if not higher, moving forward.
Tyreek Hill | WR KC
His last three games: 5/98/1TD, 3/11/0TDs and 10/89/0TDs.
Cameron Brate | TE TB
Cameron Brate has been on our list before. His last three games: 3/22/1TD, 5/43/1TD and 7/84/1TD.
NOTE: Last week, James Starks was a must-add and should be ranked in right around 1-2 above if available in your league.
The post Week 11 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Sunday, November 13, 2016
NFL DFS Week 10: Top Fanduel Cash Lineup
Are you ready for NFL DFS week 10 on Fanduel? Wow week 10 of the NFL season is already upon us. Soon we will be eating Turkey while watching cold weather games as teams make their push for the playoffs. We have some great games on the slate today, but before we get to those, […]
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Week 10 Preview
In most leagues, the trade deadline is fast approaching. With just a few regular season fantasy weeks left, competitive owners may be looking long-term. I do not encourage nor condone this activity but for anyone looking ahead just remember that a lot can change over the course of a few weeks. Just 4 weeks ago, we questioned if Ben Roethlisberger would be back in 4 weeks or 8 weeks, Jamaal Charles was finally getting ready to start, and Jay Ajayi had less points on the year than he’s had in each of his last three starts.
For someone that’s in-line for a playoff spot your best strategy may be to make a 2 for 1 trade. Under this strategy, you trade 2 players in an effort to upgrade for 1, more valuable player. This sounds simple and obvious but the problem is that most owners do not want to be on the receiving end of this trade. Ultimately, trading away any one typical “starter” + a typical “bench player” no matter how good the bench player is, for an upgraded starter can optimize your lineup. Think in terms of the total points that your weekly lineup produces. From this, find ways to improve upon this sum by gaining value via trade where you need it most. For those people looking from the outside in on a playoff spot, the opposite strategy may work best for you. Have Aaron Rodgers? Why not trade a player like Rodgers if the return of a lesser QB and position player increases the aggregate points of your optimal starting lineup?
Another key is to make sure you acquire your handcuffs, either by free agency or trade. I understand that there is a lot of skepticism around the idea of handcuffing and the issue has yet to be addressed on this website. What most experts find to be erroneous with the “handcuffing” strategy is that the presumed “handcuff” player is not always the right one. Surely this is a problem during the drafting stage of a season; however by now the Running Back Depth Charts have clarity. Handcuffing or the act of owning both the starter and backup at a particular position is most effective when that team’s offensive line is effective. There is no secret that the Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the league currently. In just the last 3 years, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, and Ezekiel Elliott have all achieved major successes. If you have a starter that plays behind an elite offensive line and he goes down due to injury, his handcuff is likely to have less drop-off than other handcuffs. A perfect example of this is DeAngelo Williams who can fill in for Le’Veon Bell by putting up nearly identical numbers. ProFootballFocus keeps an updated ranking of offensive lines that can be a useful tool in determining which RB’s you want on Draft Day or at the trade deadline. The current top 5 includes: Titans, Packers, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys. Another practical example is that Alfred Morris (14.5% owned ESPN) is more worth owning than Matt Asiata (49% owned ESPN) because if Elliot where to go down Morris would have much greater chance to succeed than if Asiata became the starter and although Asiata produces a baseline of points now, hopefully you are not desperate enough to start him in any lineup.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) (vs. Cowboys)
In what most would consider a bad performance against the Ravens last week, Ben Roethlisberger still put up 18 standard fantasy points. That number is actually larger than any projected QB total by fantasyfootballanalytics.net this week. Roethlisberger has a long history of playing much better at Home, (122.2 career passer rating) vs. on the Road (72.2 career passer rating) and will likely bounce back to stardom against the Cowboys this week.
WR Tyreek Hill (KC) (vs. Panthers)
Who would’ve ever guessed that through week #9, the player with the most TD’s on the Kansas City Chiefs is… Tyreek Hill. With Jeremy Maclin OUT more owners may catch on to this play in daily fantasy; regardless, Hill receives his fair share of snaps and against a weak secondary like the Panthers, Hill could break free for a long TD at any given time. By playing Hill in Daily Fantasy, you will be able to play more high priced studs like David Johnson, but in desperation Hill could even warrant a FLEX spot on your season-long team.
D/ST Rams (vs. Jets)
The Jets offense has turned the ball over more than any team in the league this season (14INT, 5Fumbles). On top of this, Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to play with a MCL sprain in his left knee. Despite the Rams struggles, this matchup/value is too hard to ignore.
The post Week 10 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Friday, November 11, 2016
Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings
WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings are here! Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland are all on bye. This bodes well for managers who have their starters from Arizona and New England returning. The season is over the halfway mark and we have seen plenty of surprises in the fantasy world. Players […]
Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports
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Thursday, November 10, 2016
Week 10 Sit Start Advice
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Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 10
The post Gold-Mining – Week 10 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Week 10 Buy Low Sell High
Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks
Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)
The post Week 10 Buy Low Sell High appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Week 10 Radio Show
Below is our Week 10 Fantasy Football Radio Show. Listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty as they breakdown Week 10 Sleepers, Breakouts, Trade For candidates, Start Bench Advice, Waiver Wire Advice, and more.
Russ Bliss has had his Red Zone Radio Program on the air for 20 years now, which makes his fantasy football program the longest-running fantasy football radio show in the world.
The post Week 10 Radio Show appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Week 9 Radio Show (WED edition)
Below is our Week 9 Fantasy Football Radio Show. This is show 2 of 2 (the WED show!). Listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty as they breakdown Week 9 Sleepers, Breakouts, Trade For candidates, Start Bench Advice, Waiver Wire Advice, and more.
Russ Bliss has had his Red Zone Radio Program on the air for 20 years now, which makes his fantasy football program the longest-running fantasy football radio show in the world.
The post Week 9 Radio Show (WED edition) appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Monday, November 7, 2016
Podcast: Episode 116: Week 10 Streaming and Sweet Potato Sushi
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Week 10 Waiver Wire
James Starks, GB RB – Starks (knee) returned to practice last week, and could play this week. Ty Montgomery is not setup to continue his ‘slash’ type role, so GB will likely welcome back Starks as the lead rusher. He should be grabbed in all leagues and could have very solid flex-value, if not more, within 1-2 weeks!
DuJuan Harris, SF RB – With Carlos Hyde out in Week 9, Harris totaled an impressive 59 yards on 10 carries while pulling in five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hyde is the starter, but Harris is the clear handcuff and flex-worthy if starting.
Paul Perkins, NYG RB – Rashad Jennings will likely continue to get the goal line work if healthy, but Paul Perkins had 11 carries for 32 yards in the Giants’ Week 9 win over the Eagles. This is a RBBC but Perkins has nice upside and stash value!
Chris Ivory, JAC RB – The guy was dropped in handfuls of leagues, but in Week 9, he ran for 107 yards on 18 carries. He is no lock to be consistent, but should be owned in most leagues.
More Adds
Steve Smith
Char. West
The post Week 10 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, November 5, 2016
Week 9 Preview
Understanding regression to the mean will make you a smarter fantasy owner. Whether it’s players, teams, or fantasy standings, regression to the mean is the force that pulls activity into its natural bell curve. If you have ever wondered how to best estimate your league’s (matchup-based) standings at seasons end, this can be done through regression to the mean. This does not necessarily help to predict next week’s action, rather the long-term. The key is to look at the distribution of Points For and Points Against within your league.
A team with Low Points Against (compared to league average) is a “lucky owner.” We expect this person to drop in the rankings upon facing opponents that score more toward the average, pulling the Points Against total up.
A team with High Points Against (compared to league average) is an “unlucky owner.” We expect this person’s schedule to ease up, as the Points Against total is pulled closer towards the average.
The end standings should be representative of Points For. This ideal result removes the bias of luck in Head-to-Head competition over time. The difference between the Points For standings and the actual standings can be seen as the statistical standard error of the estimate. Represented by the formula
σm=(σ/√N)
Where the error decreases when σ, the standard deviation also decreases (occurs with regression to the mean of increased number of matchups) and also when N (number of owners) increases.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
WR T.Y. Hilton (IND) (vs. Packers)
Hilton is the 4th highest projected WR on fantasyfootballanalytics.com this week. He is truly a boom or bust play each week. With a sure to be high scoring passing matchup against the Packers, I think that this week will be a “boom.”
WR Michael Thomas (NO) (vs. 49ers)
Thomas comes in with extreme value on daily fantasy websites despite being one of the most consistent Wide Receivers this season (Ranked 9th among WRs on ESPN’s Consistency Rankings). He also has one of the lowest risk values this week on our website helping to confirm the “safe play.”
RB Charcandrick West (KC) (vs. Jaguars)
Spencer Ware is OUT, as is Jamaal Charles. This is West’s first chance at the lead back role this season, but he has had tremendous success in the past under this role. The matchup is great too as the Jaguars have allowed a rushing touchdown each of the previous 4 weeks.
The post Week 9 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Draftkings Week 9 NFL Picks
DraftKings NFL Picks Week 9: Quarterbacks: Our week 9 Draftkings NFL picks begins with the QB position. Our first pick is a value pick: Joe Flacco. Flacco can be had for $5,500. He doesn’t grade out very well: 31st in DYAR, 29th in DVOA and 24th in QBR. So at this point your probably saying, […]
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Thursday, November 3, 2016
Week 9 Sit Start Advice
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Gold-Mining – Week 9
The post Gold-Mining – Week 9 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Wednesday, November 2, 2016
FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 9
FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 9 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week. I like to lean on FantasyPros for weekly […]
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Week 9 Pass Defense Versus Receiver Type Heat Map
Week 9 Pass Defense Versus Receiver Type Heat Map
Which wide receivers, tight ends and running backs have the best receiving match-up in week 9? The goal of this article is to highlight where an offensive may choose to attack a defense based on the past results of their opponents defense. In this copy cat league, once a team exploits a certain area of your defense other teams will follow suit. Using this heat map we can pin point the most favorable areas to target in in week 9. We look at the pass targets and yardage for RB, WR1, WR2, WR3 and TE. We then creating heat maps to showcase where each team has been getting exposed via the pass. You'll also see I've added the team defense fantasy points allowed by position to help you figure out the favorable matchups.
Last Weeks Results
- Here's the week 8 heat map. Missed the mark on a couple and hit on most others. For example: Julio Jones didn't go off, but he got hurt (knee bruise) so Sanu when off instead. That's the volatility we're all too aware of in fantasy football.
- I had to add DvP (fantasy points allowed per position) to the heat map. This is because the heat map looks at production on the field more so than fantasy points. Fantasy points is what we're after and combining the visual heat map with DvP and the Vegas odds we can get pretty close to figuring out where the best opportunities exist.
Week 9 Pass Defense Versus Position Heat Map
So here's who I like this week per the heat map.
- Jordy Nelson hasn't gone off in awhile now so he's due for a big one. Based on our DL vs OL chart, Rodgers should have that extra second needed for Jordy to get deep. If Vontae Davis is out for the Colts, their top DB, I'm playing Jordy for darn sure. Otherwise I may pivot to Adams.
- Carolina showed up last week but JJ Nelson still found his way into the FanDuel perfect lineup. Britt or Tavon Austin has a serious chance to feast on a burnable Carolina defense. My bet is Britt if he's healthy.
- Corey Coleman or Terrelle Pryor is primed to have a huge day as the Cowboys just lost top CB Morris Claiborne to a multi-week groin injury. This makes the Browns an interesting plays in DFS. Both Coleman and Pryor have tags though so watch their injury report updates with our player tracker.
- TY Hilton isn't a player you needed me to highlight.
- Brandon Cooks is the WR to own in New Orleans vs SF.
- ATL and TEN running backs represent the best PPR matchups.
- Pitta, Ebron and Brate all have solid matchups at tight end.
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Radio Show: Week 9
Check out our Week 9 Radio Show, where Russ Bliss and Smitty discuss Week 9 Sleepers, Breakouts, Injuries, Busts, Breakouts, Buy-Lows, Sell-Highs and more. Russ Bliss has the longest running fantasy football radio show in the world, it has been going for 20 years now. Listen to this Week 9 Show now, which aired on Tuesday night!
The post Radio Show: Week 9 appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Week 9 Buy Low Candidates
Below are some Week 9 Buy Lows. In need of a change or a spark to get back in the 2016 playoff hunt? Target some of these players on the cheap before this week’s games.
Todd Gurley | RB Rams
Folks, he is a top 1-3RB talent-wise, and he is getting the carries. The problem is that he has been facing eight-man fronts, and his team can’t move the football down the field. The good news is that he has already had his bye, so if you acquire him, he’s bye-free moving forward. Plus, the Rams may have addressed the offensive struggles during the bye week, and while there is no true solution for that offense given the QB situation, there is a chance they change-up their game plan a bit to free up the run. Could he struggle all year? Sure. But, he is worth the risk given you can get him at super-low RB1-type value, and RB2-type value in some cases. That’s extremely-low risk and high-reward.
DeAndre Hopkins | WR Texans
This situation is the same as the Todd Gurley situation up above. Is there risk that the offenses continue to hold back both Gurley and Hopkins? Sure, but both are proven talent-wise. I have ZERO doubt that both Gurley and Hopkins are top 1-5 talents at their position. ZERO. The disappointing seasons both are having are offensive-related, which may or may not be fixed in Weeks 9-16, but they are both worth trading for if the price is right. I’ve seen Hopkins go at high-end WR2-type value. Steal.
Allen Robinson | WR Jaguars
I know, he is on the list every week and he keeps disappointing. The targets are there, folks, he is massively targeted, but he isn’t seeing a ton of catchable passes. Will it change? Will things stay the same? Tough to say, but a losing team means lots of 3rd- and 4th-quarter passing, so my money is on ARob being a HUGE steal moving forward, even if Borltes is hit and miss and still throwing picks left and right. ARob is a top 5-9WR to me moving forward (and especially in dynasty in case your league is a dynasty league). I know that sounds crazy to some, but keep in mind I would never buy him in that 5-10WR value in redraft, as you don’t have to. Anyone buying him as a top 5-10WR in redraft is not using the market values to their advantage. That’s bad management. Buy him at WR2-type value, because he can easily be had at that value, which he’d earn on a still-disappointing season.
Donte Moncrief | WR Colts
The receiver is on his way back to full-strength this week, and even last week, his first game back from injury, he pulled in 40 yards and a TD. I expect a high-end WR2-type season moving forward if he can stay healthy. However, do NOT buy him at that value (high-end WR2-type value), or you are ruining all the upside with your acquisition. Buy-low and hope for big play!
Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman | RB Falcons
After a disappointing yardage outing in Week 8, a week he was suppose to explode given Coleman was out, many Freeman owners are considering selling Freeman at just solid value, not high value. If the owner in your league also has Coleman, buy both at less-than-high value and you might just have yourself a top 3-5RB moving forward (with the duo). They won’t be buy-low types, but they won’t cost you the kind of value they can still hold, in my opinion. Coleman might miss Week 9, but he isn’t yet ruled out. Freeman will likely have a big Week 9 if Coleman sits, and buying at merely solid-type value will be out the window. He will be overpriced if he goes nuts this week. Owning both rushers is the key, though.
Derrick Henry | RB Titans
It looks like DeMarco Murray (toe) is going to be ok for Week 9, or at least the week after… his MRI results came back negative. However, he is an overused rusher and he was abused in Dallas in such a way it shortens careers. You will find no one higher on Murray/Henry entering August drafts (or even moving forward — I love the duo, still!); I had the duo as a top 5RB entering 2016. That said, there are different ways to attack all this, and if you don’t own both, and especially don’t own Murray, see if the current Henry owner (if that owner doesn’t own Murray) will trade Henry to you for a player that can help that owner in terms of their lineup. With all the byes and injuries right now, someone that was crafty enough to draft just Henry (if they weren’t lucky enough to grab both Titans RBs like we advised in August), that owner might be hit hard with injury/bye and they may sell off their ‘what if’ prospect in Henry to better their playoff hunt chances. Just check out who owns Henry in your league and see what’s what, it’s worth a look, especially if that owner just owns Henry and is struggling with injury or bye. If Henry starts games in 2016, he will be a top 5-10 RB, if not higher, per start. That’s how good this starting slot is in Tennessee, and it’s why I loved, and still do, the Murray/Henry combo. I still love the duo, and if you own the duo, keep them… ride it out, you’re golden with both backs!
The post Week 9 Buy Low Candidates appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Podcast: Episode 115: Week 9 Streaming and Announcer Voices
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Rappin’ with Michael Rapaport: Lessons in Trash Talking
Whether you’ve won or lost in your fantasy football matchup, Ya Never Know’s Michael Rapaport is here to teach you the art of trash talking.
Hint: If all else fails, start with a “yo mama” joke.
Ya Never Know airs on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on Tuesdays at 6 p.m. ET.
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