Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Week 9 Buy Low Candidates

smitty staff

Below are some Week 9 Buy Lows. In need of a change or a spark to get back in the 2016 playoff hunt? Target some of these players on the cheap before this week’s games.

Todd Gurley | RB Rams

Folks, he is a top 1-3RB talent-wise, and he is getting the carries. The problem is that he has been facing eight-man fronts, and his team can’t move the football down the field. The good news is that he has already had his bye, so if you acquire him, he’s bye-free moving forward. Plus, the Rams may have addressed the offensive struggles during the bye week, and while there is no true solution for that offense given the QB situation, there is a chance they change-up their game plan a bit to free up the run. Could he struggle all year? Sure. But, he is worth the risk given you can get him at super-low RB1-type value, and RB2-type value in some cases. That’s extremely-low risk and high-reward.

DeAndre Hopkins | WR Texans

This situation is the same as the Todd Gurley situation up above. Is there risk that the offenses continue to hold back both Gurley and Hopkins? Sure, but both are proven talent-wise. I have ZERO doubt that both Gurley and Hopkins are top 1-5 talents at their position. ZERO. The disappointing seasons both are having are offensive-related, which may or may not be fixed in Weeks 9-16, but they are both worth trading for if the price is right. I’ve seen Hopkins go at high-end WR2-type value. Steal.

Allen Robinson | WR Jaguars

I know, he is on the list every week and he keeps disappointing. The targets are there, folks, he is massively targeted, but he isn’t seeing a ton of catchable passes. Will it change? Will things stay the same? Tough to say, but a losing team means lots of 3rd- and 4th-quarter passing, so my money is on ARob being a HUGE steal moving forward, even if Borltes is hit and miss and still throwing picks left and right. ARob is a top 5-9WR to me moving forward (and especially in dynasty in case your league is a dynasty league). I know that sounds crazy to some, but keep in mind I would never buy him in that 5-10WR value in redraft, as you don’t have to. Anyone buying him as a top 5-10WR in redraft is not using the market values to their advantage. That’s bad management. Buy him at WR2-type value, because he can easily be had at that value, which he’d earn on a still-disappointing season.

Donte Moncrief | WR Colts

The receiver is on his way back to full-strength this week, and even last week, his first game back from injury, he pulled in 40 yards and a TD. I expect a high-end WR2-type season moving forward if he can stay healthy. However, do NOT buy him at that value (high-end WR2-type value), or you are ruining all the upside with your acquisition. Buy-low and hope for big play!

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman | RB Falcons

After a disappointing yardage outing in Week 8, a week he was suppose to explode given Coleman was out, many Freeman owners are considering selling Freeman at just solid value, not high value. If the owner in your league also has Coleman, buy both at less-than-high value and you might just have yourself a top 3-5RB moving forward (with the duo). They won’t be buy-low types, but they won’t cost you the kind of value they can still hold, in my opinion. Coleman might miss Week 9, but he isn’t yet ruled out. Freeman will likely have a big Week 9 if Coleman sits, and buying at merely solid-type value will be out the window. He will be overpriced if he goes nuts this week. Owning both rushers is the key, though.

Derrick Henry | RB Titans

It looks like DeMarco Murray (toe) is going to be ok for Week 9, or at least the week after… his MRI results came back negative. However, he is an overused rusher and he was abused in Dallas in such a way it shortens careers. You will find no one higher on Murray/Henry entering August drafts (or even moving forward — I love the duo, still!); I had the duo as a top 5RB entering 2016. That said, there are different ways to attack all this, and if you don’t own both, and especially don’t own Murray, see if the current Henry owner (if that owner doesn’t own Murray) will trade Henry to you for a player that can help that owner in terms of their lineup. With all the byes and injuries right now, someone that was crafty enough to draft just Henry (if they weren’t lucky enough to grab both Titans RBs like we advised in August), that owner might be hit hard with injury/bye and they may sell off their ‘what if’ prospect in Henry to better their playoff hunt chances. Just check out who owns Henry in your league and see what’s what, it’s worth a look, especially if that owner just owns Henry and is struggling with injury or bye. If Henry starts games in 2016, he will be a top 5-10 RB, if not higher, per start. That’s how good this starting slot is in Tennessee, and it’s why I loved, and still do, the Murray/Henry combo. I still love the duo, and if you own the duo, keep them… ride it out, you’re golden with both backs!

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