Nine Rookie Wide Receivers To Keep An Eye On In 2017

In fantasy football leagues wide receivers have a history of struggling in their first season, but some rookies have had an immediate impact. For example, you were sitting pretty if on draft day you identified Michael Thomas last season, Amari Cooper’s rookie campaign in 2015, and Odell Beckham Jr.’s league winning performance in 2014. Identifying which rookies have a higher probability of success and which ones to avoid is key to maximizing your drafting. To show the characteristics of each receiver, we’ll use RotoViz’s Box Score Scout app. Here are nine rookie wide receivers you will want to keep an eye on in 2017.

Let me preface this by saying that this doesn’t appear to be a year that many receivers will have an immediate impact. Still, it’s important to study the rookie wide receivers because injuries create a lot of opportunities during the season.

Corey Davis

The one clear rookie wide receiver stud from the 2017 NFL draft is Corey Davis. While he didn’t play against the best competition at Western Michigan, he has most of the characteristics that we look for in prospects. Drafted 5th overall, Davis broke out at a young age and dominated the market share of his team’s receiving yards and touchdowns. At 6’3”, Davis has several impressive similar prospects.

Davis averaged an extremely impressive 105.6 receiving yards per game for his college career. With the draft position, physical tools, and production to match guys like AJ Green, Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant, there is a lot to like about Davis. He likely has a bright future but with Eric Decker joining Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews, it’s hard to imagine Davis breaking out as a rookie.

Mike Williams

Drafted 7th overall to the Chargers, Mike Williams follows a line of successful Clemson receivers.

Williams is taller and heavier than his Clemson predecessors but lacks the same type of production. His career market share of receiving yards was 10 percent lower than both DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins. Williams was also outperformed by both as a senior. Showing an underwhelming 40 time and jumping ability at his pro day, Williams will need to show elite ball skills to succeed in the NFL. With many mouths to feed in Los Angeles, it’s unlikely that Williams makes a big impact in 2017 without an injury to one or more pieces of the Chargers’ passing game.

John Ross

John Ross is already known by many after breaking the record for the fastest 40 time in NFL Combine history. His size and speed combination makes him similar to prospects like Brandin Cooks, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, and Will Fuller. Let’s see how he stacks up.

His speed is obviously the best ever but Ross also possesses impressive jumping ability, finishing with the highest explosion score of the cohort. While he held his own in terms of market share as a senior, his career market share of receiving yards is lacking. The good news is Ross returned from tearing his ACL in 2015 to dominate as a senior. Although Ross should be involved as a rookie, expectations should be held in check by target hog AJ Green and red-zone dominator Tyler Eifert. Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Brandon LaFell will be competing for scraps along with Ross.

Zay Jones

Drafted No. 37 overall by the Buffalo Bills, Zay Jones joined a receiver needy team. With Sammy Watkins banged up, the Bills had one wide receiver top 450 yards: Robert Woods. Woods has moved on to join the Los Angeles Rams, leaving opportunity behind. With a chance to make an immediate impact, let’s take a look at Jones’ production.

Year	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	msYD	msTD
Career	399	4279	10.7	23	0.26	0.2
2013	62	604	9.7	5	0.14	0.14
2014	81	830	10.2	5	0.17	0.16
2015	98	1099	11.2	5	0.32	0.23
2016	158	1746	11.1	8	0.43	0.31

While Jones racked up 158 receptions as a senior, no other teammate caught more than 58 passes. Despite not playing against the best competition, his market share of receiving yards and touchdowns are promising. Per Player Profiler, let’s look at his athleticism.

Jones’ athleticism is very well rounded bolstered by his SPARQ score falling in the 88th percentile. Finishing last in the NFL with 474 pass attempts, will the Bills have the volume to support another fantasy-relevant receiver behind Sammy Watkins?

Curtis Samuel

Like Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, and Tavon Austin, Curtis Samuel was a moveable chess piece in college. In his final college season, Samuel averaged 59.3 rushing yards to go along with 66.5 receiving yards per game. He’s the second youngest receiver in this year’s draft behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, which is a good sign for future success. Let’s see how he compared to his similar prospects.

Samuel blazed to a 4.31 forty time, tying Austin, and finishing faster than Harvin and Cobb. Samuel averaged more rushing yards per game than all three and paced them with his market share of receiving yards.

While he’s a very intriguing prospect, his landing spot is a tad concerning. The Panthers do need targets in the passing game but Samuel’s ability in the short passing game could be considered redundant to first round pick Christian McCaffrey. The concern is the two will eat into each other’s targets.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Player Profiler calls JuJu Smith-Schuster’s best comparable DeAndre Hopkins. Both broke out at a young age (JuJu is the youngest receiver in this draft class) and share similar physical size and athletic ability. Below is a heatmap that shows both players’ last two collegiate seasons.

The size, speed, and jumping ability of these two are nearly identical. While DeAndre Hopkins had the best final season, JuJu’s best season came as a sophomore. Catching 39 percent of his team’s receiving yards, JuJu dominated against difficult competition. Although he disappointed as a junior, JuJu has shown the ability to dominate and was an expected first round pick before his final season at USC.

Behind Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Le’Veon Bell, it’s unlikely that JuJu’s sees many targets as a rookie. It’s clear, however, that JuJu has massive potential.

Chris Godwin

In terms of guys who dominated the combine, Chris Godwin is near the top of the list. His athleticism gives him a SPARQ score of 128.3 (95th percentile). Godwin has good speed, jumping ability, and agility.

With solid athleticism and production, Godwin draws favorable comparables like Roddy White, Sammy Watkins, and Alshon Jeffery. Interestingly enough, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter compared Godwin to Roddy White.

While he’s been making noise in camp, Godwin has played strictly the outside receiver positions. This means he would likely need an injury to Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson to have an impact in 2017.

Carlos Henderson

With the 82nd overall pick, the Broncos drafted Carlos Henderson. A relatively small playmaker, Henderson matches speed with impressive jumping ability. He had an impressive senior year at Louisiana Tech.

His smaller size leads to similar prospects like Golden Tate, Corey Coleman, and Willie Snead. Target hogs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have dominated opportunities in the Broncos’ passing game but Henderson will have a chance to slide in as the starting slot receiver.

Kenny Golladay

Last but certainly not least is Kenny Golladay. At 6’ 4” 218 lbs., Golladay combines height, above average speed, and impressive production.

For his career, Golladay had 41% of his team’s receiving yardage. That’s higher than every player on this list, that includes AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald.

Golladay has wasted no time making an impression in OTAs. Per beat writer Michael Rothstein, “Everything he has shown so far has been impressive. He has: run routes well, made a bunch of difficult catches, had good run-after-the-catch, an excellent jumping radius and good hands.” While he’s still behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, Golladay could take over Anquan Boldin’s 2016 targets.

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Cooper vs. Crabtree: Where Is The Value?

There’s little doubt that the Oakland Raiders are going to continue their offensive prowess in 2017. With Derek Carr emerging as a true franchise quarterback, a stellar offensive line and two fantastic receivers, there are going to be plenty of fantasy points to be had in the Bay Area. But the past two seasons, hype has not mirrored result when it comes to picking the value at WR on the Raiders. Is this the year Amari Cooper finally takes over, or will Crabtree prove to be the bargain yet again?

Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice…

Going into 2015, Cooper was hailed (correctly, in my opinion) as one of the best WR prospects in recent memory. Considering his combine, age-adjusted production (more on this later) and dominator rating, it was “can’t miss” territory. Combine that with major target opportunity, and even as a rookie Cooper was highly sought after in drafts.

Crabtree, on the other hand, was a castoff from San Francisco without too many suitors during free agency. Considered an afterthought, his ADP dropped to the double-digit rounds. But here is how the season played out:

2015 Cooper vs. Crabtree

Player	ADP	Targets	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPR Finish
Michael Crabtree	11.10 (WR51)	146	85	922	9	WR17
Amari Cooper	3.03 (WR14)	130	72	1070	6	WR21

According to where they were drafted, Crabtree was a clear value and Cooper slightly underperformed. While both were productive, Crabtree paced the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Granted – Cooper was a rookie and struggling through a painful foot injury. With a promising rookie season at such a young age, Cooper’s ADP in 2016 jumped to the second round. 2016 was the year that Cooper was going to take over the Raiders passing attack, right? Wrong.

2016 Cooper vs. Crabtree

Player	ADP	Targets	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPR Finish
Michael Crabtree	7.07 (WR37)	145	89	1003	8	WR12
Amari Cooper	2.06 (WR10)	131	82	1149	5	WR16

Once again, Crabtree proved to be a massive bargain and outperformed his ADP while Cooper struggled through bouts of inconsistency. Cooper had more yards, but Crabtree again led the Raiders in almost every other receiving category while clearly earning the trust of Derek Carr.

However, Amari Cooper is really, really good

While Cooper has slightly disappointed according to his ADP, his career as an NFL wide receiver is incredibly promising especially when adjusted for his age. Not only was Cooper dominating the college football landscape as a 19-20 year old, there have been only 15 seasons since 1970 in which a player younger than 23 years old has posted a 70-1000-5 season in the NFL:

Player	Year	Age	Targets	Rec	Yards	TDs
Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	165	103	1409	10
Odell Beckham	2014	22	130	91	1305	12
Terry Glenn	1996	22	167	90	1132	6
Josh Gordon	2013	22	159	87	1646	9
Brandin Cooks	2015	22	129	84	1138	9
Amari Cooper	2016	22	132	83	1153	5
Michael Clayton	2004	22	122	80	1193	7
Randy Moss	1999	22	137	80	1413	11
Allen Robinson	2015	22	151	80	1400	14
Hakeem Nicks	2010	22	128	79	1052	11
Koren Robinson	2002	22	141	78	1240	5
DeAndre Hopkins	2014	22	127	76	1210	6
Amari Cooper	2015	21	130	72	1070	6
Keenan Allen	2013	21	105	71	1046	8
David Boston	2000	22	133	71	1156	7

Pretty robust list in my opinion. Most importantly, you will notice that only one player appears on this list twice: Amari Cooper. Keenan Allen and Cooper are the only players to accomplish this feat at 21 years old. We know that age-adjusted production is a fantastic predictor of NFL success, and Amari Cooper has arguably the best age-adjusted production in the NFL. He is going to be a superstar.

What Does This Mean For 2017?

Let’s take a look at Amari Cooper’s similarity scores with the help from our friends at RotoViz.
Some pretty incredible names and seasons on that list. Sooner rather than later, Amari Cooper is going to be a top-five WR in this league and you are not going to want to miss out on that party. While he has slightly underperformed on his ADP, he has shown a high floor and the ability to perform through injury. One small concern is his touchdown upside: Crabtree clearly has Derek Carr’s trust inside the 20, out-targeting Crabtree 34-21 the past two seasons combined. But you don’t have to be a prolific touchdown scorer to be a dominant fantasy wide receiver: just ask Andre Johnson or Julio Jones.

But what about the central question: Crabtree vs. Cooper? Let’s see how the MFL10 ADP is stacking up the past couple weeks:

Compared to last year, Cooper’s ADP has fallen slightly while Crabtree’s has gone up rather significantly. Crabtree will be 30 years old during Week 1 of the 2017 season while Cooper is about to turn 23. While 30-year-old wide receivers are likely to descend from their peak, 23-year-olds like Cooper are likely to improve statistically.

Crabtree may be the safer pick as a proven target hog with the cheaper price tag, but fantasy football is about looking forward, not backward. Considering Cooper’s age-adjusted production, proven floor and sky-high ceiling, I believe he is worthy of his ADP and that this is the year Crabtree takes a backseat to the young superstar.

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Routinely Undervalued – Golden Tate

Somehow it seems like every year that Golden Tate is undervalued in PPR leagues. After finishing as WR12 in 2014, Tate finished as WR24 playing alongside Calvin Johnson in 2015. Last year, Tate struggled out of the gates but finished the season as WR17. That makes three straight top 24 finishes – yet Tate is currently being drafted as WR27. Let’s look at why, even after proven production, he is still undervalued.

Opportunity

While discussing Tate’s past production – let’s examine how Calvin Johnson’s involvement affected him.

It’s clear that Tate scores more fantasy points when Calvin Johnson is not playing. Without Megatron, Tate has very little competition for targets. We know that targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring and last year Tate finished 14th in targets, yet he’s being drafted as WR27.

During the offseason, the Lions drafted Kenny Golladay in the third round. He’s an interesting prospect but will have plenty of opportunities replacing Anquan Boldin’s 95 targets. It’s very unlikely that he affects Tate’s targets in a negative fashion. The Lions didn’t add any other imposing offensive threats. Marvin Jones flamed out after a hot start, and the clock is ticking for Eric Ebron’s breakout that we always think is coming.

Production

Over the final 12 weeks of 2016, Tate finished 7th in WR scoring (both aggregate and per game). On a per game basis, Tate finished behind just Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Michael Thomas. All of those receivers are being drafted, on average, in the first 14 picks. Tate is being selected, on average, with the 55th pick.

Durability

With injuries so prevalent in today’s NFL, I would be remiss to exclude Tate’s impressive durability. In the past six seasons, Tate has missed one game. As a member of the Lions, Tate has played in 48-of-48 regular season games.

In Summary

While Tate may not have the mouth-watering upside to finish as a top-five wide receiver, he currently sticks out as a fairly obvious value pick. It’s not always the sexiest picks that win you leagues, and when all is said and done Golden Tate has shown time and time again that he puts up numbers.

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Three Unheralded Rookie Running Backs Who Could Make an Impact in 2017

Running backs consistently impact fantasy leagues as rookies – oftentimes leading their fantasy teams to championships. In 2016, it was first-rounder Ezekiel Elliott and fifth-rounder Jordan Howard. In 2015, it was first-rounder Todd Gurley and third-rounder David Johnson.

While higher picks are indeed more likely to have an impact, running backs drafted after the first two rounds are consistently making an impact – especially considering the rise of the Zero RB strategy. Here are three rookie running backs who could make an impact in 2017.

D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans, Round 3 Pick 89

Averaging 184.4 rushing yards per game at a clip of 6.3 yards per rush, D’Onta Foreman dominated at Texas. An athletic power runner, Foreman easily led 2017 rookie running backs in RotoViz’s RB Prospect Lab Scores. Foreman’s comps also provide reasons for enthusiasm.

Adding fuel to the Foreman fire is Lamar Miller’s lackluster play in 2016. Miller struggled when not facing the very below-average Colts in 2016 – rushing for just 3.66 yards per carry.

If Miller continues to struggle, Foreman’s opportunity could come sooner than expected.

Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers, Round 4 Pick 121

Handpicked by coach Kyle Shanahan, Joe Williams has been touted as his new Tevin Coleman. Williams averaged a dominant 156.3 rushing yards per game in his final season and ran a 4.41 forty-yard dash at 210 pounds. Williams draws intriguing comps that include Tevin Coleman, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch.

General manager John Lynch has questioned how Carlos Hyde’s skills will translate to Shanahan’s system. Hyde is also no stranger to the injury bug, playing just 20 games in the last two seasons. It appears Williams will get an opportunity at some point during the 2017 season.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts, Round 4 Pick 143

Marlon Mack was a solid all-around player at South Florida. His speed and size aren’t great but Mack set USF all-time records in rushing yards, all-purpose yards, and touchdowns. His comps show a mixed bag.

The enthusiasm surrounding Mack should arise from his potential opportunity. Frank Gore hasn’t topped 4 yards per carry in either of his past two seasons. Turning 34 this month, his age is a near death sentence. Gore has made a habit of fading during the second half of the season.

Prior to the draft, coach Chuck Pagano recognized that adding a young running was “paramount”. It’s clear that the Colts knew they needed to add a more dynamic ball-carrier. PFF noted that Mack is one of the top big-play running backs in this draft class.

In Marlon Mack, the Colts have added one of the top big-play running backs in the 2017 NFL Draft. http://pic.twitter.com/9moGfDKOV8

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 8, 2017

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Help Protect Fantasy Sports For All

With the rise of popularity in fantasy sports, lawmakers are cracking down on the regulations for each state. Legislation is quickly becoming a very concerning issue for fantasy sports businesses. As a consumer, you need to be aware of the changes in the regulations for legally playing fantasy football – both season-long and daily. Many states are actively passing new laws to regulate and potentially limit your ability to enjoy playing the game you love.

Overview

While Apex would love to offer everyone the opportunity to play in our leagues, some states are quietly starting to restrict their residents. As most reading this will know, one of the most significant problems with the legislation is the difference between Daily Fantasy Sports (aka DFS) and traditional, season-long contests.

Most of the legislation is focused on regulating DFS, but the language is broad enough that it often encompasses season long contests as well, even though many of the terms and concepts don’t even apply. Some states are requiring an unaffordable amount of money (except for FanDuel and DraftKings) for a licensing fee and/or taxation, while others are issuing compliance regulations that are nearly impossible for small businesses to achieve.

State Summary

MyFantasyLeague does a good job of keeping track of the regulations in each state. Visit their State Summary to find out the current status of your state. To help keep your hobby legal for all, contact your representatives to object to any laws that would be prohibitive for small companies to operate in your state.

SBFSTA

Small Businesses of Fantasy Sports Trade Association is doing their best to lobby for fantasy football to be accessible and legal for all residents but it is an expensive endeavor. Check out their website to see how you can help by contributing funds to their lobbying efforts.

 

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The Peak Age for an NFL Wide Receiver

Wide receivers continue to be a polarizing topic in fantasy leagues: 2016 proved to be the height of Zero RB discussion. Regardless of whether you believe in the strategy, wide receivers are a critical ingredient to fantasy leagues. In this article, we’re going to examine the ages of wide receivers during their “peak” seasons and ultimately decide what age wide receivers are at their best.

WR1 Production

Below are the average age, number of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns for WR1s or the top 12 PPR receivers from this past season. Let’s begin by comparing the production from the top 12 receivers this season to the past three seasons:

Year	Age	Rec	Rec Yards	TDs	Targets	Y/T	Rec FPs
2013	26.25	95.3	1400.9	9.67	158.2	8.95	293.4
2014	25.58	97	1406	10.25	147.9	9.54	299.1
2015	26.58	103.7	1402.8	10.17	161.8	8.74	305.0
2016	26.67	92.4	1212.25	9.17	143.1	8.56	268.6

Compared to past seasons, the top 12 wide receivers’ production was down by any measure. Is this a concern for the future: will wide receivers’ value continue to decrease?

While there was a bit of a dip in pass yards per game in 2016, it’s clear that the league is trending towards passing as frequently as ever. With passing on the rise, receiver production seems bound to regress to the mean.

Defining A Peak Season

We will define a peak season as a wide receiver with at least 80 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. We will include each receiver to meet those requirements since 2000. The sample size at this threshold is 128 players. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/G
1	Julio Jones	2015	26	16	203	136	1871	8	116.9
2	Antonio Brown	2015	27	16	193	136	1834	10	114.6
3	Marvin Harrison	2002	30	16	205	143	1722	11	107.6
4	Antonio Brown	2014	26	16	181	129	1698	13	106.1
5	Torry Holt	2003	27	16	183	117	1696	12	106
6	Calvin Johnson	2011	26	16	158	96	1681	16	105.1
7	Josh Gordon	2013	22	14	159	87	1646	9	117.6
8	Torry Holt	2000	24	16	139	82	1635	6	102.2
9	Randy Moss	2003	26	16	172	111	1632	17	102
10	Demaryius Thomas	2014	27	16	184	111	1619	11	101.2
11	Rod Smith	2000	30	16	173	100	1602	8	100.1
12	David Boston	2001	23	16	175	98	1598	8	99.9
13	Julio Jones	2014	25	15	163	104	1593	6	106.2
14	Andre Johnson	2008	27	16	171	115	1575	8	98.4
15	Andre Johnson	2009	28	16	171	101	1569	9	98.1
16	Wes Welker	2011	30	16	173	122	1569	9	98.1
17	Steve Smith	2005	26	16	150	103	1563	12	97.7
18	Victor Cruz	2011	25	16	131	82	1536	9	96
19	Marvin Harrison	2001	29	16	164	109	1524	15	95.3
20	DeAndre Hopkins	2015	23	16	192	111	1521	11	95.1
21	Jordy Nelson	2014	29	16	151	98	1519	13	94.9
22	Reggie Wayne	2007	29	16	156	104	1510	10	94.4
23	Brandon Marshall	2012	28	16	192	118	1508	11	94.3
24	Brandon Marshall	2015	31	16	173	109	1502	14	93.9
25	Antonio Brown	2013	25	16	167	110	1499	8	93.7
26	Randy Moss	2007	30	16	160	98	1493	23	93.3
27	Calvin Johnson	2013	28	14	156	84	1492	12	106.6
28	Santana Moss	2005	26	16	134	84	1483	9	92.7
29	Isaac Bruce	2000	28	16	135	87	1471	9	91.9
30	Terrell Owens	2000	27	14	146	97	1451	13	103.6
31	Odell Beckham	2015	23	15	158	96	1450	13	96.7
32	T.Y. Hilton	2016	27	16	155	91	1448	6	90.5
33	Chad Johnson	2007	29	16	161	93	1440	8	90
34	Demaryius Thomas	2012	25	16	143	94	1434	10	89.6
35	Chad Johnson	2005	27	16	155	97	1432	9	89.5
36	Larry Fitzgerald	2008	25	16	154	96	1431	12	89.4
37	Demaryius Thomas	2013	26	16	142	92	1430	14	89.4
38	A.J. Green	2013	25	16	178	98	1426	11	89.1
39	Alshon Jeffery	2013	23	16	148	89	1421	7	88.8
40	Marvin Harrison	2000	28	16	169	102	1413	14	88.3
41	Terrell Owens	2001	28	16	155	93	1412	16	88.3
42	Larry Fitzgerald	2011	28	16	154	80	1411	8	88.2
43	Larry Fitzgerald	2007	24	15	167	100	1409	10	93.9
44	Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	16	165	103	1409	10	88.1
45	Julio Jones	2016	27	14	129	83	1409	6	100.6
46	Muhsin Muhammad	2004	31	16	160	93	1405	16	87.8
47	Emmanuel Sanders	2014	27	16	141	101	1404	9	87.8
48	Anquan Boldin	2005	25	14	171	102	1402	7	100.1
49	Allen Robinson	2015	22	16	151	80	1400	14	87.5
50	Joe Horn	2004	32	16	153	94	1399	11	87.4
51	Roddy White	2010	29	16	179	115	1389	10	86.8
52	Dez Bryant	2012	24	16	138	92	1382	12	86.4
53	Javon Walker	2004	26	16	144	89	1382	12	86.4
54	Roddy White	2008	27	16	148	88	1382	7	86.4
55	Anquan Boldin	2003	23	16	165	101	1377	8	86.1
56	Jimmy Smith	2001	32	16	176	112	1373	8	85.8
57	Torry Holt	2004	28	16	135	94	1372	10	85.8
58	Chad Johnson	2006	28	16	152	87	1369	7	85.6
59	Odell Beckham	2016	24	16	169	101	1367	10	85.4
60	Marvin Harrison	2006	34	16	148	95	1366	12	85.4
61	Torry Holt	2001	25	16	133	81	1363	7	85.2
62	Chad Johnson	2003	25	16	154	90	1355	10	84.7
63	Terrell Owens	2007	34	15	141	81	1355	15	90.3
64	Reggie Wayne	2010	32	16	175	111	1355	6	84.7
65	Wes Welker	2012	31	16	174	118	1354	6	84.6
66	Roddy White	2012	31	16	142	92	1351	7	84.4
67	A.J. Green	2012	24	16	164	97	1350	11	84.4
68	Randy Moss	2002	25	16	185	106	1347	7	84.2
69	T.Y. Hilton	2014	25	15	131	82	1345	7	89.7
70	Rod Smith	2001	31	15	172	113	1343	11	89.5
71	Amani Toomer	2002	28	16	134	82	1343	8	83.9
72	Joe Horn	2000	28	16	151	94	1340	8	83.8
73	DeSean Jackson	2013	27	16	126	82	1332	9	83.3
74	Torry Holt	2005	29	14	163	102	1331	9	95.1
75	Hines Ward	2002	26	16	160	112	1329	12	83.1
76	Brandon Marshall	2007	23	16	170	102	1325	7	82.8
77	Mike Evans	2016	23	16	173	96	1321	12	82.6
78	Miles Austin	2009	25	16	124	81	1320	11	82.5
79	Dez Bryant	2014	26	16	136	88	1320	16	82.5
80	Jeremy Maclin	2014	26	16	143	85	1318	10	82.4
81	Ed McCaffrey	2000	32	16	149	101	1317	9	82.3
82	Jordy Nelson	2013	28	16	127	85	1314	8	82.1
83	Joe Horn	2002	30	16	149	88	1312	7	82
84	Sidney Rice	2009	23	16	121	83	1312	8	82
85	Reggie Wayne	2006	28	16	137	86	1310	9	81.9
86	Roy Williams	2006	25	16	151	82	1310	7	81.9
87	Odell Beckham	2014	22	12	130	91	1305	12	108.8
88	Demaryius Thomas	2015	28	16	177	105	1304	6	81.5
89	Derrick Mason	2003	29	16	133	95	1303	8	81.4
90	Terrell Owens	2002	29	14	159	100	1300	13	92.9
91	A.J. Green	2015	27	16	132	86	1297	10	81.1
92	Roddy White	2011	30	16	180	100	1296	8	81
93	Donald Driver	2006	31	16	173	92	1295	8	80.9
94	Brandon Marshall	2013	29	16	164	100	1295	12	80.9
95	Isaac Bruce	2004	32	16	148	89	1292	6	80.8
96	Lee Evans	2006	25	16	137	82	1292	8	80.8
97	Greg Jennings	2008	25	16	140	80	1292	9	80.8
98	Eric Moulds	2002	29	16	180	100	1292	10	80.8
99	Braylon Edwards	2007	24	16	154	80	1289	16	80.6
100	Eric Decker	2013	26	16	136	87	1288	11	80.5
101	Randall Cobb	2014	24	16	127	91	1287	12	80.4
102	Joey Galloway	2005	34	16	152	83	1287	10	80.4
103	Antonio Brown	2016	28	15	154	106	1284	12	85.6
104	Cris Carter	2000	35	16	161	96	1274	9	79.6
105	Chad Johnson	2004	26	16	170	95	1274	9	79.6
106	Marvin Harrison	2003	31	15	142	94	1272	10	84.8
107	Joe Horn	2001	29	16	156	83	1265	9	79.1
108	Brandon Marshall	2008	24	15	181	104	1265	6	84.3
109	Randy Moss	2009	32	16	137	83	1264	13	79
110	Reggie Wayne	2009	31	16	149	100	1264	10	79
111	Jordy Nelson	2016	31	16	152	97	1257	14	78.6
112	Peerless Price	2002	26	16	148	94	1252	9	78.3
113	Antonio Bryant	2008	27	16	138	83	1248	7	78
114	Drew Bennett	2004	26	16	144	80	1247	11	77.9
115	Dez Bryant	2013	25	16	159	93	1233	13	77.1
116	Randy Moss	2001	24	16	154	82	1233	10	77.1
117	Steve Smith	2009	24	16	157	107	1220	7	76.3
118	Andre Johnson	2010	29	13	138	86	1216	8	93.5
119	Larry Fitzgerald	2015	32	16	145	109	1215	9	75.9
120	Jimmy Graham	2013	27	16	142	86	1215	16	75.9
121	Calvin Johnson	2015	30	16	149	88	1214	9	75.9
122	Brandon Marshall	2011	27	16	141	81	1214	6	75.9
123	Jimmy Smith	2000	31	15	145	91	1213	8	80.9
124	Jerry Rice	2002	40	16	150	92	1211	7	75.7
125	Donald Driver	2004	29	16	137	84	1208	9	75.5
126	Laveranues Coles	2003	26	16	159	82	1204	6	75.3
127	Marques Colston	2007	24	16	143	98	1202	11	75.1
128	Roddy White	2007	26	16	137	83	1202	6	75.1

The average age of this group is 27.35. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:

It looks like the peak of a wide receiver’s career is from 25 to 29 years old – 59.4% of the peak seasons fall within this range. It looks like receivers decline at 30 years old, with the wheels falling off at 33 years old. The amazing Jerry Rice notched the only peak season at 40 years old.

What Does This Mean For 2017?

When selecting wide receivers in the early rounds, who are expected to carry your fantasy team, I’d aim to draft wide receivers who are 29 or younger.

This study is not favorable for many aging veterans. Their ages next season are in parenthesis: Larry Fitzgerald (34), Brandon Marshall (33), Jordy Nelson (32), and Ted Ginn (32).

Julian Edelman, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon will be 31 in 2017 – heading closer to the imminent decline. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will turn 30, although their quarterback play is likely a bigger concern.

Studs Antonio Brown (turning 29), Dez Bryant (29), TY Hilton (28), Julio Jones (28) should remain in their prime in 2017.

It’s scary to think that Odell Beckham Jr. (25) and Mike Evans (24) are just entering their primes and could still be improving.  Despite the effects of bad quarterback play, DeAndre Hopkins (25) and Allen Robinson (24) are still extremely young.

Sammy Watkins (24), Michael Thomas (24), Brandin Cooks (24), Stefon Diggs (24), and Amari Cooper (23) are still at a solid age for production and potential improvement. While they still haven’t entered their primes according to the study, the fact they accomplished impressive production at such a young age is a good indicator for their futures.

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Learning From 2016’s Breakout Players

In competitive fantasy football leagues like Apex’s, identifying breakout players is a crucial element to winning. This is the reason that August is dedicated to pumping out “sleeper” and “upside” articles – if you can find the player who was valued as a 14th round pick but performed as a 2nd round pick, you will have added significant value to your team. Here are a few of the players who broke out in 2016:

Matt Ryan

On average, Matt Ryan was selected as the 18th quarterback off the board. Only Aaron Rodgers scored more fantasy points than Matt Ryan this season. We’ve seen Ryan perform as a reliable QB1 before, but never with the upside he showed this season. Over the past five seasons, Ryan averaged 27.2 passing touchdowns per 16 games, this year Ryan threw 38 passing touchdowns. Ryan’s impressive numbers are likely to regress with Kyle Shanahan likely to accept a head coaching position, but with his current weapons he must be taken seriously for fantasy drafts next summer.

Jay Ajayi

At times, this one was extremely hard to see coming. With the Dolphins drafting Kenyan Drake and declaring Arian Foster the starter, it appeared that the Dolphins didn’t see much in Jay Ajayi. After being a healthy scratch in Week 1, Ajayi looked extremely unlikely to make an impact. When Foster got injured and promptly retired, there were opportunities for touches. Ajayi took advantage and never looked back.

While it was difficult to see coming, there is evidence that Ajayi is an impressive prospect. Ajayi dominated at Boise State, generating a college dominator rating of 41.3% (89th percentile) and a college target share of 12.4% (86th percentile). At 6-foot 221 pounds, he scored 123.5 on the Nike SPARQ test (79th percentile). Despite long-term health concerns about his knee, Ajayi’s college profile indicated that he was a player worth keeping an eye on.

Davante Adams

Davante Adams went from the being the league’s least efficient receiver in 2015 to the 9th highest scoring wide receiver in 2016. With Jordy Nelson injured, Adams was supposed to be the breakout guy in 2015. When he faltered, it led to many emotional biases against him – which led to Adams being significantly undervalued and essentially left for dead (with many banging the table for Jeff Janis to receive more playing time).

Many forget that Adams was playing through injures in 2015 and that breakouts sometimes take place in a wide receiver’s 3rd season. There were signs that a breakout was possible with Adams – he was another impressive prospect.

In terms of athleticism, Adams looked like the most agile and explosive Packer wide receiver.

When it comes to college production, Adams was dominant.

With this impressive profile and Aaron Rodgers as his starting quarterback, we shouldn’t be surprised that he broke out. Although his 2015 season made it difficult to trust Adams, we must remember that young players can turn their careers around.

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Regular Season Recap: Apex Expert Writers League

It’s always important to reflect on competitive fantasy leagues to refine your strategy. Few leagues are as competitive as the Apex Expert Writers League, where some of the biggest names in fantasy football battle it out. With starting lineups of three wide receivers and a flex and PPR scoring, the draft was extremely wide receiver heavy. Let’s examine how the regular season was won.

The top seed was clinched by CD Carter, who started his draft with four wide receivers. While not all of them panned out (I’m looking at you, Jeremy Maclin), Mike Evans proved to be one of the best picks of the draft. Despite inconsistency in his second season, Evans has become one of the league’s most consistent receivers in year three.

Although Carter avoided running backs early, he found running back value in the middle and late rounds of the draft, selecting Latavius Murray, DeMarco Murray, and Spencer Ware. Selecting DeMarco Murray in eighth round feels comical after his impressive first season as a Titan. The savvy pickup of Kirk Cousins before his hot stretch run helped Carter receive consistent production out of his quarterback position.

The second seed was clinched by Shawn Siegele, who started the draft with Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Greg Olsen, and Travis Kelce. True to his Zero RB roots, Siegele didn’t take running back until the seventh round. Siegele drafted Stefon Diggs as the 45th wide receiver off the board – he is currently WR9 in fantasy points per game.

With Sammy Watkins injured, Siegele was able to replace his production by securing game breaker Jamison Crowder in the 14th round. Selected as the 75th WR, Crowder is currently WR15. In the 7th and 9th rounds, Siegele was able to find productive running backs in Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the success of Mike Clay – the only owner who did not select a wide receiver with one of his first two picks (Note: he didn’t take a WR until round seven). While Clay didn’t receive a bye week in the first round of the playoffs, he did lead the regular season in points scored. Clay started the draft with four running backs: David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, and Eddie Lacy. While two didn’t pan out, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell lead all players in fantasy points per game and are likely the top two picks of 2017 drafts.

With Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Graham, Clay built his team from the outside in – leaving wide receiver as a position to stream players. Clay let the draft come to him and selected the players that he believed brought the most value to his team, regardless of position. As the leading point scorer during the regular season, clearly the strategy worked for him.

There are a couple of takeaways from this league: Firstly, there are clearly many different drafting strategies that can win a fantasy league: regardless of whether you draft running backs, wide receivers or tight ends early. Secondly, selecting players who out-produce their draft position is a method that consistently delivers league winning results.

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Most and Least Valuable Picks of the First 4 Weeks

Although there is a lot made of different drafting strategies, fantasy football comes down to selecting the right players. While injuries determine the fates of a lot players, some players underperform and consistently leave a hole in your lineup. Through four weeks, I am going to discuss the best and worst fantasy picks of the season.

Quarterback

Best Pick: Matt Ryan

Drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board on average, Matt Ryan has been an absolute steal. Clearly comfortable in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Ryan has outscored all QBs by at least 20 points during the first four weeks. The Falcons’ schedule becomes much more difficult but it looks like only a Julio Jones injury can stop Ryan from finishing as a top 12 quarterback.

Worst Pick: Russell Wilson

While he has been impacted by injury, Russell Wilson didn’t top 15 fantasy points in any of his first three games. Regression is bound to kick in (as it has already started in Week 4) but owners who spent a high pick on Wilson were certainly impacted during the first three weeks. Currently sitting at QB20 in scoring, I expect Wilson to recover and finish as a top 12 quarterback. Carson Palmer owners may not be as lucky.

Running Back

Best Pick: DeMarco Murray

During drafting season, many didn’t know what to think of DeMarco Murray: will he be surpassed by stud rookie Derrick Henry? Will he return to his Dallas Cowboys form? All questions have been answered during the first four game. Murray amazingly is leading all running backs in scoring and has scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in each game this season. Selected on average with pick 52, Murray looks like the steal of drafting season.

Worst Pick: Todd Gurley

While Murray looks like the MVP, Gurley looks like the least valuable pick of drafting season. Often selected as the first running back off the board, Gurley is 28th in per game scoring out of running backs. Gurley’s concerns continue to be his lack of pass game involvement and his team’s poor offensive attack. His outlook should improve but there are legitimate questions about whether he is a top 10 running back.

Wide Receiver

Best Pick: Marvin Jones

Through four weeks, Marvin Jones has been nothing short of spectacular. Only outscored by first rounders A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones, Marvin Jones has been extremely reliable for owners. With at least seven targets and 74 receiving yards in each of the first four weeks, Jones looks like a top 10 wide receiver going forward.

Worst Pick: Golden Tate

Consistently selected in the third round, Golden Tate has been a disastrous fantasy selection for owners. The breakout of Marvin Jones has relegated Tate to being unstartable in fantasy leagues. Currently WR81, Tate will have opportunities to turn his season around – but it’s currently difficult to be optimistic.

Tight End

Best Pick: Kyle Rudolph

Selected as TE24 in drafts, Kyle Rudolph was selected on average with pick 181. Through four weeks Rudolph is behind just Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed in tight end scoring. Tight end has become a very unreliable position so Rudolph’s consistency has been impressive. Rudolph and Olsen are the only tight ends to score at least 10.5 fantasy points in each of the first four weeks.

Worst Pick: Coby Fleener

While Rob Gronkowski is clearly the worst pick so far at the tight end position, we are excluding players who were doomed by injury. During drafting season Fleener was selected as the sixth tight end off the board but is currently producing as TE14. Outside of a solid Week 3 performance, in which many of his owners benched him, Fleener has just 11.4 fantasy points in three weeks.

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The Former Star Wide Receiver That Is Being Ignored

It doesn’t take more than a little recency bias for fantasy owners to turn on a player. Stuck on a team that threw the least in the NFL last season, Mike Wallace disappointed fantasy owners.

Before his terrible 2016, Wallace finished as a top 27 wide receiver in five straight seasons. That includes two top 10 finishes. Wallace is now being selected as the 63rd WR off the board.

Change in Opportunity

Wallace leaves the Vikings who threw just 454 times last season for the Ravens who led the NFL in pass attempts with 676. Even if he maintains his market share of targets, his targets will rise considerably.

It would be hard to have any fantasy value on a team that passes as little as the Vikings did last season – especially when you’re not the top wide receiver. It’s also clear that Wallace’s talent wasn’t a match with Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill.

Despite being inefficient with Tannehill, Wallace still finished as a top 27 WR in both of his two seasons as a Dolphin. Joe Flacco’s deep ball could theoretically be a better match for Wallace.

The Competition

Despite a fantastic career, I’m betting against any 37-year-old wide receiver returning from a torn achilles. If Kobe Bryant struggled to be the same basketball player in a comparable situation, I’m betting against Steve Smith.

Kamar Aiken played well last season but I’m concerned about drafting a player who saw over 33 targets for the first time as a 26-year-old. If Aiken truly is the Ravens top wide receiver and is worthy of his current average draft position, why wasn’t he earning more opportunities earlier in his career?

With Mike Wallace, we have a player who has performed at a high level before, is a good athlete, and is simply coming off a bad season. He is being drafted after his competition. At a price of an inexpensive 13th round pick, Wallace is a good risk to take.

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