Week 8 Preview

Picking up a speculatory kicker on a week-by-week basis is a strategy often thought of but not utilized. The Top 9 Most Owned Kickers on ESPN.com this season are:

Adam Vinatieri

Stephen Gostkowski

Steven Hauschka

Matt Bryant

Justin Tucker

Dan Bailey

Mason Crosby

Dustin Hopkins

Matt Prater

Below is the average actual points scored of these players and actual points scored by the next two highest projected remaining kickers based upon fantasyfootballanalytics.net projections.

W1: TOP 9: 10.4, Nick Novak: 10, Cairo Santos: 10

W2: TOP 9: 8.4, Josh Brown: 10, Chandler Catanzaro: 10

W3: TOP 9: 11.6, Josh Brown 9, Connor Barth: 5

W4: TOP 9: 8.2, Blair Walsh: 6, Brandon McManus: 9

W5: TOP 9: 9.6, Blair Walsh: 7, Chris Boswell: 8

W6: TOP 9: 9.8, Nick Novak: 7, Dan Carpenter: 10

W7: TOP 9: 8.4, Mike Nugent: 5, Cairo Santos: 10

There is no significant difference between these points scored meaning that the strategy of picking up a new kicker on a weekly basis is equivalent to keeping one for the season. Including Adam Vinatieri as an exception this season, the best strategy is to wait for kickers in the draft and if you are unable to find a consistently successful kicker, use the week-by-week approach.

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My Favorite Value Plays this week are:

QB Jameis Winston (TB) (vs. Raiders)

Winston has possibly turned the corner on his fantasy struggles this season posting 4 TD’s to 1 INT the previous two weeks. This week he gets the league worst (32^nd ranked) Oakland Defense. For standard leagues… consider trading for Buccaneers Offensive Weapons. After the Raiders, the Buccaneers will be approaching matchups against the Falcons (26^th ranked), Chargers (21^st ranked), and Saints (29^th ranked) twice during the fantasy playoffs window.

RB DeVontae Booker (DEN) (vs. Chargers)

C.J. Anderson is OUT due to injury and thus Booker has become the lead back for the Denver offense. RB’s on the Broncos have had great success as a unit in previous seasons, but this is a very rare situation where they will lean on a one-back system. Booker was priced at his running back by committee value and thus is a cheap upside play.

RB/WR Ty Montgomery (GB) (vs. Falcons)

Falcons cannot defend against RB receptions; opposing RB’s average 8 non-PPR fantasy points through receiving alone against this defense. So… who’s better at playing against a defense like this than a WR that plays RB.

WR Cole Beasley (DAL) (vs. Eagles)

Historically Beasley plays his best against the Eagles. A lot of people will be scared of playing him this week in the return of Dez Bryant but even when Dez was in, Beasley averaged 71yards a game.

 

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