Week 9 Waiver Wire

Charcandrick West (RB/KC)

Spencer Ware suffered a Week 8 concussion and Jamaal Charles is getting a second opinion on his knee(s). While Ware could play Week 9, there is a strong chance West gets the start this week, and he is a low-end RB1 if starting, he is that good.

Mike Gillislee (RB/BUF)

With LeSean McCoy’s Week 9 status up in the air, Gillislee is a must-own (if even available, as we have said for weeks to grab him) and proved it with his 85 yards and a TD on 12 carries in Week 8. He does play Seattle next week and McCoy could return, so much is cloudy, but he is still a must-own given his upside of starting.

Jamison Crowder (WR/WAS)

This guy has been awesome so far this year, and he was a breakout candidate of ours, so congrats to all who grabbed him early on. However, he still appears available in a decent number of leagues, so we had to list him yet again this week even though he is already gone/played in most leagues. Crowder pulled in 9/107/1TD in Week 8 and he had 7/108/0TDs in Week 7. He has a bye in Week 9.

Tim Hightower (RB/NO)

After fumbling one too many times and after being rather inconsistent, the team is likely turning to Tim Hightower.

JJ Nelson (WR/AZ)

His Week 8 line (8/79/2TDs ) was impressive enough to add him ASAP as a deeper WR play for Weeks 9-16.

Derrick Henry (RB/TEN)

Make sure he isn’t available. We said to draft and stash him, as he is a huge, huge secret weapon stash this year. For some reason, we see him on waivers, and Murray (toe) got banged up this past week. Murray looks fine, his MRI came back negative, but it’s a reminder to those overlooking Henry that he is an injury away from being a RB1.

Rob Kelley (RB/WAS)

He has a Week 9 bye, but the guy had 87 yards and 1TD in Week 8. He looks like the lead back in WAS for now. That could change, but you’d think after his 87/1TD line in Week 8, he will likely start in Week 10 coming out of the team’s Week 9 bye.

Darren Sproles (RB/PHI)

He ran for 86 yards and pulled in 5 passes for 17 yards in Week 8 against Dallas. He is actually available in a lot of leagues, and with more byes on the way and lots of injuries stacking up, he should be owned in all leagues.

Seth Roberts (WR/OAK)

He pulled in 69 yards and 1TD in Week 8, and he is used often in that offense. He is a fine WR4-type player with WR3-type upside, no question!

More Adds for Week 9

Tyreek Hill (WR/KC)

CJ Fiedorowicz (TE/HOU)

Russell Shepard (WR/TB)

Peyton Barber/Antone Smith (RB/TB)

The post Week 9 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 8 Preview

Picking up a speculatory kicker on a week-by-week basis is a strategy often thought of but not utilized. The Top 9 Most Owned Kickers on ESPN.com this season are:

Adam Vinatieri

Stephen Gostkowski

Steven Hauschka

Matt Bryant

Justin Tucker

Dan Bailey

Mason Crosby

Dustin Hopkins

Matt Prater

Below is the average actual points scored of these players and actual points scored by the next two highest projected remaining kickers based upon fantasyfootballanalytics.net projections.

W1: TOP 9: 10.4, Nick Novak: 10, Cairo Santos: 10

W2: TOP 9: 8.4, Josh Brown: 10, Chandler Catanzaro: 10

W3: TOP 9: 11.6, Josh Brown 9, Connor Barth: 5

W4: TOP 9: 8.2, Blair Walsh: 6, Brandon McManus: 9

W5: TOP 9: 9.6, Blair Walsh: 7, Chris Boswell: 8

W6: TOP 9: 9.8, Nick Novak: 7, Dan Carpenter: 10

W7: TOP 9: 8.4, Mike Nugent: 5, Cairo Santos: 10

There is no significant difference between these points scored meaning that the strategy of picking up a new kicker on a weekly basis is equivalent to keeping one for the season. Including Adam Vinatieri as an exception this season, the best strategy is to wait for kickers in the draft and if you are unable to find a consistently successful kicker, use the week-by-week approach.

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My Favorite Value Plays this week are:

QB Jameis Winston (TB) (vs. Raiders)

Winston has possibly turned the corner on his fantasy struggles this season posting 4 TD’s to 1 INT the previous two weeks. This week he gets the league worst (32^nd ranked) Oakland Defense. For standard leagues… consider trading for Buccaneers Offensive Weapons. After the Raiders, the Buccaneers will be approaching matchups against the Falcons (26^th ranked), Chargers (21^st ranked), and Saints (29^th ranked) twice during the fantasy playoffs window.

RB DeVontae Booker (DEN) (vs. Chargers)

C.J. Anderson is OUT due to injury and thus Booker has become the lead back for the Denver offense. RB’s on the Broncos have had great success as a unit in previous seasons, but this is a very rare situation where they will lean on a one-back system. Booker was priced at his running back by committee value and thus is a cheap upside play.

RB/WR Ty Montgomery (GB) (vs. Falcons)

Falcons cannot defend against RB receptions; opposing RB’s average 8 non-PPR fantasy points through receiving alone against this defense. So… who’s better at playing against a defense like this than a WR that plays RB.

WR Cole Beasley (DAL) (vs. Eagles)

Historically Beasley plays his best against the Eagles. A lot of people will be scared of playing him this week in the return of Dez Bryant but even when Dez was in, Beasley averaged 71yards a game.

 

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FanDuel NHL: October 29th

FanDuel NHL: October 29th is a daily fantasy sports column focusing on the best FanDuel NHL player and value options for your daily lineups.  The salary options are based on the daily salaries set by FanDuel.  We’ll review the best options in each position, and help you afford an optimal lineup for your big FanDuel […]

FanDuel NHL: October 29th - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports

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FanDuel NFL: Running Backs Week 8

FanDuel NFL: Running Backs Week 8 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week. I lean on FantasyPros for weekly point […]

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FanDuel Soccer Picks: 10/29 EPL Top Plays

Fanduel Soccer Picks: 10/29 Top Plays Fanduel Soccer Picks: 10/29 Top Plays is a column that finds the players who are in the best situation to do well that week based primarily off opportunity and match up. You’ll get an insight into the mind of a consistently profitable DFS player and give yourself the best chance […]

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Week 8 Sit Start Advice

This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 8 of the 2016 NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid. Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, or Antonio Brown. Instead, we take a look at other players...

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Gold-Mining – Week 8

The post Gold-Mining – Week 8 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Week 8 Buy Lows

There are still a good number of solid Buy Low Candidates heading into Week 8 of the fantasy season. If in need of a roster change, consider buying these guys low and mixing things up!

Todd Gurley

The Rams rusher is not playing like a top 1-3 overall pick, and most drafted him there. He isn’t even playing like a RB1 in fantasy, which is crazy to accept. If you need a spark to make your playoffs, or were hit by injury and want to beef up for your playoff run, consider selling a player scoring big and get Gurley and some in return. I’ve seen people trade players that would rank in the 18-25 range overall if drafting today for Gurley. That’s a good bet.

DeAndre Hopkins

He’s been on this list for a while, and that’s because he keeps struggling. It’s not him, it’s his QB situation. Keep in mind this might not be a problem easily resolved this year, so there is risk. But, he could very easily bounce back and be a top 1-4WR moving forward, and in many situations, that’s a risk worth taking. Buy-low, though!!!!

Amari Cooper

The guy likely ranks somewhere in the 9-11 range for all WRs in your league, yet many are complaining as if he is so far off of expectations. Folks, he could have one single huge game this week and be back in the top 5 WRs in your league year to date. Buy-low, this thinking that he is a big fat disappointment should be taken advantage of in all leagues!

Allen Robinson

I know, if you own him, you can’t get rid of him. Well, that’s why I write this. If someone else owns him in your league, they might part with him at high-end WR3-type value, or trade a strong flex for him. That’s a great risk worth taking.

The post Week 8 Buy Lows appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Radio: Week 8 Show!

Check out our Week 8 Radio Show, where Russ Bliss and Smitty discuss Week 8 Sleepers, Breakouts, Injuries, Busts, Breakouts, Buy-Lows, Sell-Highs and more. Russ Bliss has the longest running fantasy football radio show in the world, it has been going for 20 years now. Listen to this Week 8 Show now, which aired on Tuesday night!

Listen Now!

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FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 8

FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 8 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week. I like to lean on FantasyPros for weekly […]

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Podcast: Episode 114: Week 8 Streaming and Sexy Skeletons

After Denny talks through his crazy Halloween costume, the two hosts get to sharing their Week 8 streaming picks. As always, the show ends with answering Twitter questions. (Though there is a surprise at the very end.) Listen in browser: Episode 114 – Week 8 Streaming and Sexy Skeletons Listen in iTunes Listen on Stitcher […]

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FanDuel NHL: October 25th

FanDuel NHL: October 25thth is a daily fantasy sports column focusing on the best FanDuel NHL player and value options for your daily lineups.  The salary options are based on the daily salaries set by FanDuel.  We’ll review the best options in each position, and help you afford an optimal lineup for your big FanDuel […]

FanDuel NHL: October 25th - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports

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Week 8 Waiver Wire

Ok, before I list the Top Week 8 Waiver Wire Adds, let me start off by saying that make sure last week’s top adds aren’t still available. If so, you could likely miss out, as these three players will get snagged right out of the gate: Jacquizz Rodgers, Jay Ajayi, Ty Montgomery (and even Knile Davis)… Rodgers just ran for his second-straight 100-yard game and looks like a strong RB2 for the moment. Congrats to those who grabbed him two weeks ago as we advised. Also, congrats to those who grabbed Ajayi last week, again as advised… Ajayi just rushed for his second-straight 200-yard game, something that only a couple running backs have ever done in the history of the game. As for Ty Montgomery, he looks like a ‘slash’ type player that will get a handful of runs and 5+ receptions per game each and every week. Green Bay is going to use him all over the field due to Eddie Lacy’s injury.

Davante Adams (GB/WR) – In Week 7, the guy pulled in 13 receptions for 132 yards and 2TDs. Temper expectations a bit heading into Week 8, but he is a fine WR3 until he proves otherwise!

Devontae Booker (DEN/RB) – Things could change fast after the Monday night game, and we told everyone to grab him last week, so hopefully you already own him. If he gets a huge workload today (Monday night game), he will be the first player added heading into this week’s waiver process. If for some reason he doesn’t make noise and the team sticks with CJ Anderson for the most part, still grab Booker, as I believe his time is coming.

Tyrell Williams (SD/WR) – His last three outings: 5/117/1TD, 3/28/0TDs and 7/140/0TDs. Grab him as a WR3/4 moving forward!

Jamison Crowder (WAS/WR) – His last two games: 3/52/1TD and 7/108/0TDs.

Chris Thompson/Rob Kelley (WAS/RB) – After two fumbles by Matt Jones in Week 7, it’s time to look ahead and anticipate a change. Kelley would be the guy that goes nuts if starting, but the team could turn to Thompson first, so both are players to grab if you have the spots to burn.

Jack Doyle (IND/TE) – Could be a strong low-end TE1 for those looking for a cheap one.

Brandon LaFell (CIN/WR) – Solid WR4/5 type player if you need one!

The post Week 8 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 7 Preview

On average a Home Team in the NFL wins approximately 58% of the time. Teams such as the Packers and the Steelers have as high as a 72% winning percentage at Home. Because Home Field advantage is highly correlated with a team’s normal winning percentage, the more informative statistic is the % differential between Home & Away winning percentages. Below are the % differentials (meaning % advantage at home for a team) since 2002. (Data from Fox Sports)

Ravens 33%

Vikings 28.6%

Cardinals 27.8%

Seahawks 25.9%

49ers 20.5%

Lions 19.6%

Jets 18.8%

Rams 18.8%

Bills 17.9%

Jaguars 17.9%

Chiefs 17%

Patriots 17%

Packers 16.1%

Steelers 16.1%

Chargers 15.2%

Falcons 14.3%

Colts 14.1%

Texans 13.4%

Broncos 13.4%

Bengals 12.5%

Bears 11.6%

Redskins 11.6%

Browns 11.6%

Raiders 10.7%

Saints 8.8%

Dolphins 8%

Buccaneers 8%

Titans 7.1%

Panthers 7.1%

Giants 6.3%

Eagles -1.9%

Cowboys -5.4%

 

So how does this translate to fantasy football?

Well first, winning in general does not necessarily correlate to fantasy success, so it is important to look at how well individual players perform at home vs. away rather than just the team. Also, In Week 5’s preview I warned that you do not want to double count factors that may already be accounted for within a player’s projection. Home Field Advantage may be one of these, but when choosing between players to start or trying to obtain a player with an advantageous remaining schedule, then Home Field Advantage is certainly an important statistic to look at. Below I took a sample of 84 players from 2015 (Top 12 QBs, Top 30 RBs, Top 30 WRs, and Top 12 TEs). I calculated their fantasy points in Home Games and fantasy points in Away Games. If any player missed games resulting in an unbalance of Home vs. Away games, I used his average in other games for the replacement observation of the missed game. For the entire sample, 730 more points were scored at Home vs. Away (in Standard ESPN scoring leagues). Another way to look at this is a 5% differential between Home and Away. From this statistic we can conclude that when a player is at Home, his expected score should be 5% better than when he plays away. Below is a breakdown position by position:

QB 8.7% differential

RB 3.5% differential

WR 2.7% differential

TE 8.3% differential

These numbers appear to be small, but nonetheless represent an advantage and every fantasy point does count. When looking at specific players’ performances the differentials can vary extremely. This analysis needs a larger sample size by going back in future years in order run a hypothesis test, confidence intervals, and to determine outliers. For now, here are the largest absolute player differentials.

QB Drew Brees +28.7% differential

QB Kirk Cousins +17.3% differential

RB Ronnie Hillman +38% differential

RB James Starks +43.6% differential

RB Frank Gore -26.5% differential

RB Adrian Peterson -16% differential

WR Antonio Brown +29.2 % differential

WR Emmanuel Sanders -38.6% differential

WR Allen Hurns -29% differential

TE Delaine Walker +26.5% differential

Most people actively engaged in fantasy football may have heard of this differential for Drew Brees before… but there is certainty other players too and a full list dating back a few years can be found at this spot soon.

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My Favorite Value Plays this week are:

QB Kirk Cousins (WAS) (vs. Lions)

The Lions have allowed at least 2 TD’s and 16 fantasy points a game, every game this season. Cousins is likely to be without his favorite target TE Jordan Reed, yet Cousins is still highly ranked by many websites coming in with the 6^th highest projected QB total on fantasyfootballanalaytics.net.

RB Jaquizz Rodgers (TB) (vs. 49ers)

Last time we saw Rodgers play in the absence of Doug Martin he received 30 carries for over a 100 yards (Week 6 vs. Carolina). This game should be tight with two quick paced offenses and the volume alone warrants a start for Rodgers in any daily or regular fantasy league.

RB Spencer Ware (KC) (vs. Saints)

Ware is the 7^th highest projected RB this week. There are at least 3 things working in Ware’s favor this week. First, the Saints have the 32^nd rank rush defense. Next, the Saints offense has struggled on the road as of late and as a result their road games tend not to be passing shootouts. Finally, it was announced earlier this week that Ware would continue to receive the bulk of the carriers with an ailing Jamaal Charles.

WR Breshad Perriman (BAL) (vs. Jets)

This is a stretch of a play, but the Jets have allowed a league most 9 receptions over 40+ yards. With Steve Smith Out for Baltimore, Perriman should see a larger role and could be in for a breakout game.

 

The post Week 7 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Giveaway: HBO's Ballers Season 2

The cool thing about HBO's series Ballers is that it doesn't matter if you like football, the show is simply good enough that you don't need to be. Obviously, it's better if you're a football fan and recognize the many cameos from NFL stars, but the show is strong enough to appeal to all audiences. I've written about the show before and now here's your chance to see it yourself! Starring Dwayne Johnson as ex-superstar Spencer Strasmore, who has reinvented himself as a financial manager for ...

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FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 7

FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 7 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week. I like to lean on FantasyPros for weekly […]

FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 7 - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports

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FanDuel NHL: October 18th

FanDuel NHL: October 18th is a daily fantasy sports column focusing on the best FanDuel NHL player and value options for your daily lineups.  The salary options are based on the daily salaries set by FanDuel.  We’ll review the best options in each position, and help you afford an optimal lineup for your big FanDuel […]

FanDuel NHL: October 18th - Fantasy CPR - Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports

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Gold-Mining – Week 7

The post Gold-Mining – Week 7 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Week 7 Sit Start Advice

This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid. Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, or Antonio Brown. Instead, we take a look at other players...

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Week 7 Buy Lows

You want two Fantasy Buy-Low Candidates heading into Week 7? I have you covered. Last Week I practically begged fantasy owners to trade for Odell Beckham and Lamar Miller before they exploded in Week 6, they were dirt cheap compared to their drafted value, too. Well, this week:

Aaron Rodgers (QB/GB)

The guy is the talk of fantasy right now, and many are calling him a bust, or total garbage vs the cost paid to draft him back in August. I laugh at this. Just like I laughed at those writing off Odell Beckham before last week, Amari Cooper weeks before that… look, ARod has just one game with just 1TD (last week). If you include his rushing TDS, he has had 3TDs, 2TDs, 4TDs and 2TDS in Weeks 1-5 (with a bye in Week 4). While he has a 4INTs and zero 300+ yard games, the great news is that he is scoring and he has all day to throw the football. This is a recipe for a turn around, and the loss of both Eddie Lacy and James Starks is going to shake up the offensive game plan, something that I firmly believe will jolt this offense back into being an extremely high powered passing arsenal. Buy low and pay what looks like value outside of the top 1-5QBs. That’s madness… the kind of madness that can win you a league!

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU)

Everything said about Odell Beckham above can be said here. Hopkins is a top 5WR, folks, slow start or not. Buy low or be sorry. The risk is built into his decreased value. Now is the final call.

The post Week 7 Buy Lows appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Radio: Week 7

Take a listen to this week’s Week 7 Radio Show (The Red Zone), where Russ Bliss and Smitty talk Week 7 sleepers, injuries, trades, waiver wire and more. Russ’ radio program is the longest running fantasy football radio show in the world, hosted on NBC Sports Radio 1060am KDUS.

Listen to Week 7 Show!

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Podcast: Episode 113: Week 7 Streaming and Tilt City

Alex Smith gave us a big tilt in Week 6, but it’s on to Week 7. After giving their recommendations, the hosts spend some time answering questions from Twitter. Listen in browser: Episode 113 – Week 7 Streaming and Tilt City Listen in iTunes Listen on Stitcher RSS Feed

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Fantasy for Beginners: Waiver Wire

New to fantasy football? We’re sure you probably have a few questions.

Sure, your draft went alright, but you’re probably wondering how to make your team better as the season goes along. Luckily for you, SiriusXM sports anchor Maria Marino is here to walk you through some of the basics.

First up: the waiver wire.

 

 

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Week 7 Waiver Wire

Below are your top pickups heading into Week 7 of the 2016 fantasy season. Don’t miss out on guys that can help you win in Weeks 7-16!

Jay Ajayi (RB/MIA) – He just rushed for 204 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6. Will he get starter carries moving forward? He should, but grab him until we know, he could be a beast down the stretch if MIA feeds him the rock.

Cameron Meredith (WR/CHI) – In Week 5, he posted 100 yards and 1TD. This past week, he again posted 100 yards. Are we looking at a rising star?

Hunter Henry (TE/SD) – Henry had 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 and is a top 5-10TE moving forward.

James White (RB/NE) – This week he pulled in 8-of-9 targets for 47 yards and two touchdowns. He had a strong receiving week last week, so in PPR, he is a must play let alone must add.

Jacquizz Rodgers (RB/TB) – Tampa is coming off the bye and we don’t know where Doug Martin is health wise yet. But, Rodgers, who rushed for 100 yards the week prior, would be a workhorse if Martin couldn’t go in Week 7.

More Adds

Devontae Booker (RB/DEN)
Cole Beasley (WR/DAL)
Torrey Smith (WR/SF)
Mike Gillislee (RB/BUF)
Tony Romo (QB/DAL)
Dion Lewis (RB/NE)
Kenny Britt (WR/LA)
Ty Montgomery (WR/GB)

The post Week 7 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 6 Preview

At this time during the year, it is important to take a look at the current VOR landscape to get a picture of what players or positions have been of the most value so far this season. VOR (Value over Replacement) is the idea that you measure players not by how many points they score, rather how many they score compared to others at their position. For more on VOR see here or here.

Currently, the top 15 VOR (12-team standard estimate) players are:

RB David Johnson (60)
D/ST Vikings (58)
RB DeMarco Murray (55)
RB Ezekiel Elliot (55)
QB Matt Ryan (43)
RB Carlos Hyde (43)
RB Melvin Gordon (43)
RB LeSean McCoy (42)
RB Tevin Coleman (41)
TE Greg Olsen (38)
WR Antonio Brown (36)
RB DeVonta Freeman (35)
QB Ben Roethlisberger (34)
D/ST Cardinals (34)
D/ST Bills (33)

What to note is the amount of RB’s compared to WR’s in this top 15 and any slight extension of rankings. Also, the average VOR of RB’s above the 0 VOR cutoff line is larger than any other position. This statistic shows which position is of most value. Up to this point, it is currently worth more owning a top RB than a top WR. Where was this thought during pre-draft season? One interpretation is that these numbers will soon regress toward the projected average VOR based on previous seasons (more on this to come in future article). Principally, we expect the value of the starting WR to increase or starting RB to decrease over the course of the season. Regardless, RB is what you want to own on your team right now and other owners in your league may not respect that value. Additionally, do not be afraid to trade for a defense like the Bills. As a starting fixture on your team, defenses do pose a large VOR. Do not expect a defense to end up in the year-ending top 15, but you may only have to give up a bench position player to get a defense like the Bills who have a rather easy remaining schedule. One of the only flaws in the VOR system is that it does not account for a user picking and choosing starters or playing the free agent market like in the case of picking up a new defense every week. It is always better to maximize your week-by-week starters; however if skilled enough, interchangeable parts that beat the VOR can work.

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My Favorite Value Plays this week are:

WR Jeremy Maclin (KC) (vs. Raiders)

Maclin’s best game last season was against the Raiders where he had 95yds and 2 TDs. In his other matchup against the Raiders, he also recorded a TD. Maclin and anyone involved in the Chiefs passing offense will be popular plays in daily fantasy this week against the 32^nd ranked defense.

RB Jordan Howard (CHI) (vs. Jaguars)

Yes again… Since becoming the Bears starting RB, only David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot, and DeMarco Murray have scored more points than Howard. The asking price for Howard has gone up, but he still remains a value against a defense like the Jaguars.

WR DeSean Jackson (WAS) (vs. Eagles)

Jackson has historically played well against his former team catching 13 passes for 282yds and 2 TDs in his past 3 matchups. This year, Jackson has underperformed, but Coach Gruden has promised that Jackson would see bigger role in the offense in the near future (Washington Post). Finally if TE Jordan Reed (Questionable) sits due to concussion, Jackson and Jamison Crowder’s targets would surely increase.

The post Week 6 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Week 6 Sit Start Advice

This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid. Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, or Antonio Brown. Instead, we take a look at other players...

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Gold-Mining – Week 6

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Week 6 Radio Show with Russ Bliss

Take a listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty on Russ’ Week 6 Fantasy Football Show (The Red Zone), which is on on NBC Sports Radio 1060am. Russ has arguably the longest running fantasy football radio show in the world, and you can check out the entire hour below. Enjoy.

Listen Now!

The post Week 6 Radio Show with Russ Bliss appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Podcast: Episode 112: Week 6 Streaming and Locker Room Talk

After a rough Week 5, the two hosts are back and at it again — one of the slightly hungover from a long weekend — to give their Week 6 recommendations. Listen in browser: Episode 112 – Week 6 Streaming and Locker Room Talk Listen in iTunes Listen on Stitcher RSS Feed

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Week 6 Buy Low Sell High

Below are some Buy Lows and Sell Highs heading into Week 6. If you are in need of some wins, considers selling high on a few players even if they might still continue their solid play.

Sell High

DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN) – As I said above, selling high doesn’t mean you predict bust, the player still might play well all season. But, when values are increased, sometimes you can make moves you normally cannot make. Murray was a 4th rounder in some cases, and given he is the No. 1 RB in fantasy football through 5 weeks, it’s time to consider selling high. I just got Odell Beckham in one league using the guy. Now, an argument can be made that Murray is worth ODB, but if I’m being honest with myself and ranking players for just Weeks 6-16, Murray is in the second-round. I have him high in the second, he is playing amazing football, but ODB (in a PPR) is in my top 5-7 overall still.

TY Hilton (WR/IND) – I love the guy, but he will have big games and bad games, sometimes that isn’t something a team needing wins can afford. Consider selling high and buy a struggling WR or RB.

Melvin Gordon (RB/SD) – Again, do not sell thinking he will fail moving forward, he is a beast and was a Bold Prediction of mine, so I believe in him moving forward, but his value is high despite his fumbles… he could potentially get you a struggling DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham if you are in need of a WR. That is a huge sell high and great move (either WR).

Buy Low

Odell Beckham (WR/NYG) – The guy is a top 5WR, maybe even top 2-3, yet everyone is willing to give up on him after five weeks. He only has 1TD this year, but it came last week, and his breakout is on the way, just like Amari Cooper’s was entering Week 5. Buy low and get him at low first or high second round value, that’s how low his value seems to be!

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU) – Like ODB above, it’s amazing to see people undervalue a top 2-4WR after just five weeks. And, in his case, he has had two big-time games to go with some bad weeks, unlike ODB. Buy low, it’s madness to see him being ranked outside the top 10-12 overall, and I’ve seen this in serval cases in forum topics.

Lamar Miller (RB/HOU) – While there is a chance that Miller never gets the touches, his lowered value right now kind of builds in that risk. He has top 5RB upside moving forward, but is valued more in the 6-10 range for RBs. He’s worth the risk of getting at that 7-10RB value.

The post Week 6 Buy Low Sell High appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 6 Waiver Wire

Below are the top Adds for Week 6 of the 2016 fantasy season. Obviously, make sure Jordan Howard isn’t still available, as he would be atop this list if he was. He was our top pickup recommend last week.

Chris Hogan (WR/NE)

After pulling in 114 yards in Week 5, it’s safe to say his preseason hype was legit. Tom Brady makes him gold. Hogan has high-end fantasy WR3-type value moving forward.

Sammie Coates (WR/PIT)

He pulled in 139 yards and 1TD in Week 5. He should be owned as a bye week WR in all formats and has more upside than that if the team keeps feeding him targets.

Jeremy Kerley (WR/SF)

His last two games: 6/88/1TD and 8/102/1TD. He is looking like a solid WR3 in larger leagues moving forward.

Cameron Meredith (WR/CHI)

He pulled in 130 yards and 1TD in Week 5.

The post Week 6 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 5 Preview

 

In economics, double counting is defined as including the same costs or benefits more than once in the belief that different measures are involved. Double counting inflates expenditure or income since the final figure is considerably more than what was spent or earned (Reference.com). This concept of double counting is a challenge that the sports analytics world faces as well. Everyone usually has their own favorite pointers as to how certain players or even teams will preform. I personally use trends, others maybe Strength of Schedule or Vegas Odds. One problem is determining which work and which do not. The other problem is double counting statistics. Projections currently reflect the best model for predicting players. Projections take essentially all factors in to account and where you might see a certain edge to a player you may be double counting a statistic that is already being used to help create that players projection. The projections on FantasyFootballAnalytics.net combine sources of projections and remove some of their individual judgment biases (error). The result is a weighted average superior to any one source in accuracy (for more see here). It is an average therefore it does not double count statistics; however if additional analysis is applied it may lead to a frustratingly inaccurate decision.

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My Favorite Value Plays this week are: 

RB Jordan Howard (CHI) (vs. Colts)

Howard paid dividends last week despite not scoring a touchdown. This week he will face a Colts rush defense that has allowed an atrocious 24.8 fantasy points a game to opposing RB’s in non-ppr format. Lastly, injuries just keep adding up for the Bears as receiver Kevin White has just been placed on IR opening the door for even more Howard volume.

RB DeAndre Washington (OAK) (vs. Chargers)

With news that Latavius Murray is OUT this week, Washington becomes Oakland’s starting running back. In daily fantasy you are getting a starter with a backup’s price against a favorable defense, but Washington is also a great Free Agent pickup in your season-long league.

Eagles D/ST (vs. Lions)

Coming off a Bye week, the Eagles will play the one dimensional Detroit Lions. The Eagles Defense has had double-digit performances in every game this season without scoring a Defensive TD. What really makes this a great pick is that Eagles Defensive coordinator is former Lions Head Coach Jim Schwartz. When matched up against his former team in a 2014 campaign as the Bills defensive coordinator, Schwartz’s defense produced 6 sacks, 1 Interception, and 2 fumbles.

The post Week 5 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Most and Least Valuable Picks of the First 4 Weeks

Although there is a lot made of different drafting strategies, fantasy football comes down to selecting the right players. While injuries determine the fates of a lot players, some players underperform and consistently leave a hole in your lineup. Through four weeks, I am going to discuss the best and worst fantasy picks of the season.

Quarterback

Best Pick: Matt Ryan

Drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board on average, Matt Ryan has been an absolute steal. Clearly comfortable in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Ryan has outscored all QBs by at least 20 points during the first four weeks. The Falcons’ schedule becomes much more difficult but it looks like only a Julio Jones injury can stop Ryan from finishing as a top 12 quarterback.

Worst Pick: Russell Wilson

While he has been impacted by injury, Russell Wilson didn’t top 15 fantasy points in any of his first three games. Regression is bound to kick in (as it has already started in Week 4) but owners who spent a high pick on Wilson were certainly impacted during the first three weeks. Currently sitting at QB20 in scoring, I expect Wilson to recover and finish as a top 12 quarterback. Carson Palmer owners may not be as lucky.

Running Back

Best Pick: DeMarco Murray

During drafting season, many didn’t know what to think of DeMarco Murray: will he be surpassed by stud rookie Derrick Henry? Will he return to his Dallas Cowboys form? All questions have been answered during the first four game. Murray amazingly is leading all running backs in scoring and has scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in each game this season. Selected on average with pick 52, Murray looks like the steal of drafting season.

Worst Pick: Todd Gurley

While Murray looks like the MVP, Gurley looks like the least valuable pick of drafting season. Often selected as the first running back off the board, Gurley is 28th in per game scoring out of running backs. Gurley’s concerns continue to be his lack of pass game involvement and his team’s poor offensive attack. His outlook should improve but there are legitimate questions about whether he is a top 10 running back.

Wide Receiver

Best Pick: Marvin Jones

Through four weeks, Marvin Jones has been nothing short of spectacular. Only outscored by first rounders A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones, Marvin Jones has been extremely reliable for owners. With at least seven targets and 74 receiving yards in each of the first four weeks, Jones looks like a top 10 wide receiver going forward.

Worst Pick: Golden Tate

Consistently selected in the third round, Golden Tate has been a disastrous fantasy selection for owners. The breakout of Marvin Jones has relegated Tate to being unstartable in fantasy leagues. Currently WR81, Tate will have opportunities to turn his season around – but it’s currently difficult to be optimistic.

Tight End

Best Pick: Kyle Rudolph

Selected as TE24 in drafts, Kyle Rudolph was selected on average with pick 181. Through four weeks Rudolph is behind just Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed in tight end scoring. Tight end has become a very unreliable position so Rudolph’s consistency has been impressive. Rudolph and Olsen are the only tight ends to score at least 10.5 fantasy points in each of the first four weeks.

Worst Pick: Coby Fleener

While Rob Gronkowski is clearly the worst pick so far at the tight end position, we are excluding players who were doomed by injury. During drafting season Fleener was selected as the sixth tight end off the board but is currently producing as TE14. Outside of a solid Week 3 performance, in which many of his owners benched him, Fleener has just 11.4 fantasy points in three weeks.

The post Most and Least Valuable Picks of the First 4 Weeks appeared first on Apex Fantasy Football Money Leagues.

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Week 5 Buy-Lows

As we head into the weekend of Week 5 of the 2016 fantasy football season, try pulling off a last minute trade for one of these undervalued players.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU)

After scoring one TD in each of his first two games this year, Hopkins has had a bad couple weeks in Weeks 3 and 4. However, it’s not like he has struggled all year long. Still, many are trying to sell him off quick, and I say take advantage. You may not get him for low-end WR type value, but I’ve seen some pretty bad trades happen already in forum topics… try buying a good half a tier below top 5WR value… he is easily a top 5WR moving forward if you ask me.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK)

He will be on this list every week until he explodes. He is a WR1, people, yet some are honestly asking if they should bench him this week. This is a sign that there is never a better time to buy low, even in dynasty, but especially in redraft!

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)/Jordan Howard (RB/CHI)/DeAndre Washington (RB/OAK)

All three of these guys could be hidden gems on the rise. Every year a RB comes almost out of nowhere, at least in a general sense of the term, and one of these RBs might be just that, if not two of the three. Washington is likely going to start Week 5, as Latavius Murray is expected to sit this one out. Smallwood could lose some carries to Ryan Mathews should he play Week 5, and Mathews is now expected to play, however, Smallwood could be the future in PHI, and he might get used a lot in this one. There is risk Mathews gets almost all the carries, so be careful starting Smallwood this week (he is safer as a stash/project in waiting). Jordan Howard is the player we like most, for now at least, as he has no one really competing for carries, as Langford is hurt. Howard looks good too, and he could be a monster steal from here on out. Congrats if you grabbed him back when we said to. If you can buy low on any of these guys, maybe in a multi-player deal, I say go for it. Sometimes multi-player deals dilute some players rising in value, as not many owners will just up and trade you one for one on a guy like Howard who is on the rise. You have to get creative with your offers and trade thinking.

The post Week 5 Buy-Lows appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Week 5 Sit Start Advice

This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 5 of the 2016 NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid. Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, or Antonio Brown. Instead, we take a look at other players...

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Gold-Mining – Week 5

The post Gold-Mining – Week 5 appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.

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Week 5 Radio Show: Sleepers, Waiver Wire, Start/Sit Advice

Check out Russ Bliss’s Weekly Radio show below. Below is the Week 5 Show on NBC Sports Radio 1060am, where Russ and Smitty talk sleepers, waiver wire pick ups, start and sit advice and more.

Listen to the Show!

The post Week 5 Radio Show: Sleepers, Waiver Wire, Start/Sit Advice appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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Fantasy Football for the Amazon Echo

I am happy to announce the availability of Fantasy Football Nerd on the Amazon Echo platform! If you have an Echo, you can now ask Alexa for fantasy football information and advice! If you're not familiar with the Amazon Echo, it is a hands-free speaker that you control with your voice. It's always listening for the quot;wake wordquot;, which you can set to be the name quot;Alexaquot;. Alexa can play music, keep track of your shopping amp;amp; to-do lists, help the kids with homework, contro...

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Podcast: Episode 111: Week 5 Streaming and Tilting Alex

Week 4 was a roller coaster, but the end results were great. After recapping the tilting Alex Smith game on Sunday night, the two hosts look to Week 5 and give streaming recommendations. Listen in browser: Episode 111 – Week 5 Streaming and Tilting Alex Listen in iTunes Listen on Stitcher RSS Feed

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Week 5 Waiver Wire Recommendations

Below is our Week 5 Waiver Wire Recommendations. Note: make sure players like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Jordan Howard aren’t still available in your league. They shouldn’t be, as they have been on our list for a least a week or two in some of those cases. Howard by far would be the top pick-up this week if he was in fact available, as he has RB2 value in fantasy already! Congrats to those who grabbed him last week, as he was atop our list!

Wendell Smallwood PHI RB – How is this guy still available in so many leagues? He is, I just checked. Maybe because he had a bye last week? Grab him!!! I’d even say aside from Jordan Howard, who I talk about above, Smallwood is the top player on my list almost no matter what (Howard then Smallwood, in that order).

Kenneth Dixon BAL RB – Here is a must-stash, folks!!!! Don’t be wishing you grabbed him just like some of you might have waited on Jordan Howard. These types of players tend to rise to the top due to talent and injury in front of them.

Devontae Booker DEN RB – Here is a must-stash, folks!!!! Don’t be wishing you grabbed him just like some of you might have waited on Jordan Howard. These types of players tend to rise to the top due to talent and injury in front of them.

Tyler Eifert CIN TE – Coming back from injury and always has top 5TE upside when healthy.

Dion Lewis NE RB – Secret weapon stash if you can afford the spot.

Terrance West BAL RB He had a 100 yards in Week 4 and the Ravens are playing the hot hand for now, so he needs to be grabbed. But, we like Dixon for later, read above!

Orleans Darkwa NYG RB – Started Monday night, worth a grab.

Dontrelle Inman SD WR – Nice grab if you need a deep WR on your bench!

Eddie Royal CHI WR – He could be solid WR3/4-type moving forward.

The Rest

DeAndre Washington OAK RB

Robert Woods BUF WR

Kenny Stills MIA WR

Jeremy Kerley SF WR

Bilal Powell NYJ RB

The post Week 5 Waiver Wire Recommendations appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.

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