Friday, September 30, 2016
Week 4 Preview
Trading is an important skill to master in order to improve your fantasy football team. In economics, trading is typically seen as a tool that allows both sides to improve. Even with the worst of drafts, through precision trading, a season can be salvaged. When creating trades, typically an owner persists in taking an “I win; you lose position,” looking out for only his or her own self-interests. In order to get to YES on a trade, the interests of the other person must be taken into account. There is absolutely nothing wrong with a mutual gain, as the other teams in the league are missing out. When determining your own interests, trade from your strength. It’s all about maximizing the VOR (Value Over Replacement) of your starters. Additionally, maybe you excel at finding sleeper Free Agent Wide Receivers; then do not be afraid to trade away your current guys expecting future newcomer impacts. Here are a few ways to determine your opponents’ interests: do they like a certain player, are they biased towards a certain team, or do they simply like players who are hot at the moment? There are many more themes to discover and it really comes down to learning your opponents. It is important to note that most people value their own players higher than those of other owners; after all they did either draft them ahead of anyone else or pick them up/pay more in free agency. If you play in an auction league, check back to see the second highest bidder on a specific player, checking whom that was may tell you who places the next highest value on that player.
Interests are important but there are even greater underlying points of owners to take advantage of. In the study of negotiations, there is a model known as the PIN iceberg. The top of the iceberg is the Position, which is what someone wants, next is the Interests, which is why they want it, and finally Needs & Fears, which is why they must have it. The farther you go down the iceberg the greater you understand what your opponent desires. To determine one’s needs simply look at their roster and eyeball where they lack VOR or depth. Most people think somewhat rationally, and can identify the same needs/know what needs to be improved. Fears on the other hand, are a bit trickier to determine and use a great deal of intuition.
Here is an example roster:
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Frank Gore
RB Giovani Bernard
WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR Jordy Nelson
FLEX Michael Crabtree
TE Kyle Rudolph
BE Allen Hurns (WR)
BE Jamison Crowder (WR)
BE Derrick Henry (RB)
BE T.J. Yeldon (RB)
BE Jonathan Stewart (RB)
BE Andy Dalton (QB)
This team undoubtedly needs starting RB help, but its manager also has an underlying fear that Kyle Rudolph may not be able to sustain TE1 production and with no bench option has a bit of a hole should this be the case. By understanding someone’s fears, you may be able to offer someone a more intriguing package of players. One fear that people commonly have is prospective injuries. Many Le’Veon Bell owners would love to acquire DeAngelo Williams in a trade right now, just in case…
The list of fantasy football trade strategies goes on and on and will be touched upon more in future weeks. Feel free to share any of your personal strategies in the comment section below. One last tip that I have is to compare your league’s projections to that of ours here. Sometimes certain websites such as ESPN overvalue or undervalue players and owners may incorrectly lean on these projections when considering trade decisions.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
RB Jordan Howard (CHI) (vs. Lions)
With Jeremy Langford and likely Ka’Deem Carey out this Sunday against the Lions, Howard should take full control of the Running Back job in Chicago. The Bears average around 17 carries a game, throwing a few passes to RBs as well. The Lions do give up plenty of yards, just not very many rushing TDs. Take Howard simply for the volume and cheap price.
WR Tyrell Williams (SD) (vs. Saints)
The porous Saints defense will play the Chargers on a short week making any Charger a respectable play. Of all the Chargers’ key fantasy players, Williams has the cheapest price. Williams has consistently had 60+ yards every game this season, and is a good bet to catch a TD on the Saints for a solid base of about 14 (1/2PPR) points.
WR Marvin Jones (DET) (vs. Bears)
Marvin Jones is the number one wide receiver in all of Fantasy Football this year. In previous seasons, the Bears did have a top corner in Kyle Fuller who could slow down a receiver like Jones; however Fuller has just been placed on IR and will be out for at least 8 more weeks. Despite Jones’ success and solid matchup he still carries relatively low prices on daily fantasy websites.
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Week 4 Buy Low / Sell High
In need of some Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates heading into Week 4 of the 2016 fantasy football season? Here are some names to both target and potentially sell-high.
Week 4: Buy-Low
Lamar Miller – With two mediocre Weeks in a row, some owners might be worried about Miller being a disappointment. Take advantage of this. Yes, he only rushed for 83 yards and only had 2 receptions for 14 yards and no TDs in Week 2, and 80 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0TDs in Week 3, but he is the team’s workhorse, and I think a breakout is right around the corner. The time to buy low is now or never, and it sound like you can, at times, get the runner at near third-round value if we were to toss a price tag on him.
Amari Cooper – After dropping 6/137/0TDs in Week 1, Coop has only pulled in 5/71/0TDs and 4/62/0TDs since. I fully expect the receiver to be a top 4-7WR moving forward. For more on his dynasty value, checkout my SleeperU Dynasty Write-up on the guy!
Allen Robinson – Like Cooper, a slightly disappointing start has some current ARob owners on edge. Try and get him for almost third-round value if tossing a value on him. It can be done. Maybe not in every league, as some owners just don’t trade at all no matter what. But, I’ve seen him had for even less heading into this week!
Brandin Cooks – He exploded in Week 1 with 6/143/2TDs, but went quiet in Weeks 2 and 3. Well, he is Brees’ secret weapon this year, and Brees is on fire. I’m sorry, two dud weeks in a row don’t scare me off from wanting this guy in every league at what will likely be value outside of the top 25 if we were to draft today. Trade for him at that value!
Week 4: Sell-High
Christine Michael (RB/SEA) – I cannot stress this enough… DO NOT sell-low or assume my advising to sell CMichael high means I don’t believe in the guy. I love the guy, and I hope he continues to get starter carries. But, fantasy football is a business, and if your team is hurting and you need wins, sometimes selling high allows you to repair and built back a disappointing team. See what you can get. Buy low on an an Allen Robinson if you need a WR, or go get an Amari Cooper. Those are just two examples.
Carlos Hyde (RB/SF) – I love his skill set, but staying healthy is a concern. So, I am NOT predicting injury or bust, I’m merely pointing out that his value is high and he is a good person to trade if you need to move pieces around to get wins.
Eddie Lacy (RB/GB) – He could continue to get carries, but selling high is just plain smart given Lacy has disappointed fantasy owners so many times in the past. And, with his still-heavy weight, injury is more likely than when he was a touch slimmer. Trade high!
The post Week 4 Buy Low / Sell High appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Week 4 Sit Start Advice
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Gold-Mining – Week 4
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Radio: Week 4 Show (Tues)
Check out Russ Bliss’ Week 4 Radio Show, The Red Zone, where he and Smitty talk Week 4 injuries, trade advice, waiver wire advice and start bench advice.
The post Radio: Week 4 Show (Tues) appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Podcast: Episode 110: Week 4 Streaming and Blowing Your FAAB
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Monday, September 26, 2016
Week 4 Adds
Below are just a few names to grab off the waiver wire heading into Week 3. Of course, make sure guys like Dak Prescott, Christine Michael and Josh Gordon (due back from his suspension in Week 5) aren’t available, for instance if you play in a very small league.
Jamison Crowder (WR/WAS) – He pulled in 4/78/1TD in Week 3 and really is a player WAS counts on. He could be a fine WR3/4 in larger leagues moving forward.
Terrell Pryor (WR/CLE) – He pulled in 8 receptions for 144 yards, but also threw for 35 yards and ran for 21 yards and 1TD. He lines up in the wild cat formation and rotates at QB. Expect this to continue until Josh McCown returns (potentially returning in a couple weeks) and expect Pryor to be a sneaky WR3/4 moving forward.
Trevor Siemian (QB/DEN) – While he wont do what he did in Week 3 every week, which was 312 yards and 4TDs, he’s a fine backup QB in 2016, and a solid match-up start. Most of all, his solid play makes D-Thomas and E-Sanders owners smile, as their fantasy stock returns to form.
More Adds
Rob Kelley (RB/WAS)
Kenny Stills (WR/MIA)
The post Week 4 Adds appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, September 24, 2016
Week 3 Preview
Adrian Peterson, Ameer Abdullah, Doug Martin, Danny Woodhead, Jonathan Stewart, Arian Foster, Keenan Allen, Donte Moncrief, Corey Coleman, Jay Cutler, the list goes on and on. Fantasy players might be surprised to learn this, but the amount of injuries has actually decreased slightly over the last three seasons. On the contrary, the long-term injury count has experienced growth for quite some time. One reason for the reported increase in injuries over time is the NFL’s closer attention to player concussions. Another common belief is that players are becoming stronger and that the increased force of hits is creating more, longer-lasting injuries. This would also help to explain why the amount of time that players are missing due to injury is increasing at a steadfast rate. Injuries are indeed unavoidable, and unfortunately there is a lack of transparent research on which factors predict injury likelihood (but see here). This is something that I am planning to examine in the coming weeks by running a logistic regression model with predictors including position, age, and usage—let us know in the comments below if you have other suggestions for factors to consider.
For now, there are a few ways that you can tailor your fantasy roster to cope with injuries. One great metric on this website is Risk which tells us of the uncertainty of a player’s projections (and includes an estimate of injury likelihood from Sports Injury Predictor). The Risk factor can work similar to having players on your roster that you may deem to be “injury prone.” An optimal strategy for building around these high-risk players is to stock pile bench players of that same position. For example, if you drafted Le’Veon Bell and Arian Foster (2 high risk players) as your top two RB’s, it would be paramount to stock up on RB depth, as Bell and Foster are the most likely to either get injured or underperform on your team. High Risk scores are not always disadvantageous, however, as a high-risk player can reward his owner with large dividends. Check out current Risk values updated weekly on the projections page here. Another common practice is to handcuff your starting RBs or even WRs in special cases. Most do this through the draft; however it can be accomplished throughout the year via trades and free agency. Essentially, the concept is to own the player whom would reap the most benefits from your starter getting injured. Consider it to be a safety net. Going back to an example where someone owns Le’Veon Bell, that person may want to trade for DeAngelo Williams once Bell returns and Williams’ value diminishes. Once Williams is no longer the lead back, his owner may trade him at a rather cheap price and the reward/peace of mind of having him say Bell goes down again is well worth it.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Ryan Tannehill & WR Jarvis Landry (MIA) (vs. Browns)
Both of these players are sure to be highly owned in Daily Fantasy this week with a matchup against the Browns. However, it is not just this matchup that makes these two a great play. For the past two weeks, the Dolphins have been up against two of the league’s top secondaries, and as a result regression to the mean is likely. You have to like the way that the Dolphins offense finished the game against the Patriots and these two combined for 5 receptions for 96 yards on just the last three drives alone. Imagine if they carry that level of performance into this game.
RB Frank Gore (IND) (vs. Chargers)
The Chargers’ rush defense, especially on early downs, is rather weak, but has been masked by the way the last two games have played out. Both the Chiefs and Jaguars found themselves down by at least 21 to the Chargers at halftime. The Jaguars alone only ran the ball three times in the entire second half. This is a good matchup for Gore, with a high floor; however, because Gore tends not have explosive games, the ceiling is not entirely high. To see the ceiling/floors of more players check out weekly Gold-Mining here.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA) (vs. 49ers)
As of now, both Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are probable for Sunday’s game. Lockett, who was injured in the 2nd Quarter last week, came back into the game and had a 53yd reception late in the 4th Quarter. Dating back to last season, only the Saints allow more “big plays (40+ yds)” than the 49ers. As one of the most explosive wide receivers in the game, Lockett should be able to come through with at least 1 giant reception, regardless if Baldwin plays.
The post Week 3 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs
Ok, so we are already heading into Week 3 and many teams/owners have been hit hard by injuries. Maybe you lost Adrian Peterson? Maybe Doug Martin? How about Corey Coleman? Ok, well, let’s dig into a list of names that are good buy lows, and also a list of names that are good targets to sell off on the hight (maybe to get some of these buy lows). Here we go.
Buy Lows
Devonta Freeman (RB/ATL) – He comes with a boatload of risk and upside at this point. If you need a spark and are willing to take the risk that he shares carries all year, roll the dice!
Allen Robinson (WR/JAC) – The dude is elite and just waiting to drop a big game. Buy low while his owners worry he had a fluke of a season last year. He is easily a top 12 overall pick if drafting today.
Blake Bortles (QB/JAC) – Like ARob above, and their success is linked, I think breakout is near. Trade for both ARob and Bortles before they drop huge games this week or next week.
Amari Cooper (WR/OAK) – After a big week one, he had a disappointing Week 2, and for some reason that one single bad week already has many wondering if he has WR1-type ability. Really? This is a top 4-6 fantasy WR if you ask me, and I buy low any chance I get, even if this isn’t a huge, huge buy low (and more of a slight down tick in value).
Sell High
Philip Rivers (QB/SD) – I’ve seen two owners land Aaron Rodgers using Rivers already. After two weeks! See if you can get this kind of value for the passer (Rivers), who has lost both of his top two receiving options.
Cam Newton (QB/CAR) – I can’t stress this enough, but ONLY trade Newt if you are selling through the rough, and I’m talking an arm and a leg. And, only do this if you own Newt but have to make a move to stay in the mix. Meaning, your team is underperforming outside of Newt, or you were hit hard with injuries. This is the time to not consider him a bust, no, that’s not what selling high always means… it just means, in this case, you need to get two pieces for one, and the kind of deal I’d look to do is a Bortles/Landry or Bortles/McCoy… something like that is possible using Newt, and something like that could revive a season.
DeAngelo Williams (RB/CAR) – I almost say let it ride if you own DWill and cannot get awesome value. Keep in mind that Bell may struggle a bit coming back, maybe he even gets hurt trying to do too much too fast. It happens all the time. However, if you can sell high, and I mean for a strong starting piece for your lineup, consider the trade. Or, get crafty and at least trade for a stash in waiting, like Derrick Henry (as one example).
Matthew Stafford (QB/DET) – I don’t see Stafford continue to play at the level he is playing at, and I think he can be sold high to improve a team moving forward.
Matt Forte (RB/NYJ) – This is again one of those situations like Cam Newton above, don’t sell low or even at even value. Sell high or not at all. Forte is playing awesome, and he may continue that awesome play. But, if your team is in need, and only if it’s in need, consider selling high for two players. Just make sure it’s an awesome deal or hold tight!
The post Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Week 3 Sit Start Advice
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Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Gold-Mining – Week 3
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Radio: Week 3 Trade and Waiver Advice
Check out Russ Bliss’ Week 3 Radio Show, The Red Zone, which can be heard below (and live every Tuesday and Wednesday on NBC Sports Radio 1060am). Checkout the entire Week 3 Tuesday show below, as Smitty and Russ Bliss talk injuries, trade advice, waiver wire advice and start bench advice.
The post Radio: Week 3 Trade and Waiver Advice appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Podcast: Episode 109: Week 3 Streaming and The Redemption
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Week 3 Waiver Wire
Players Not Likely Available
Make sure these guys aren’t sitting on waivers. If so, grab them ASAP!
Stefon Diggs (WR/MIN) – Top level WR3 moving forward, with upside for more!
Corey Coleman (WR/CLE) – With the QB situation a mess in CLE, it’s tough to say how consistent he will be, but a must own!
Available In Most Leagues
These players are far more likely to be available in fantasy leagues than the group above.
Travis Benjamin (WR/SD) – High upside as the team’s likely no. 1 moving forward!
Jerick McKinnon (RB/MIN) – Most own with AP on the mend for a while.
Charles Sims (RB/TB) – Martin is banged up and questionable for Week 3.
Tyrell Williams (WR/SD) – Benjamin might be better for 2016, but this kid has huge upside for the future, and nice WR3/4 value in fantasy moving forward.
Devontae Booker (RB/DEN) – Huge sleeper stash!
Kenyan Drake/Jay Ajayi (RBs/MIA) – RBBC mess in MIA!
Dennis Pitta (TE/BAL) – Solid numbers lately, but can he stay healthy?
Fozzy Whittaker/Cameron Artis Payne/Mike Tolbert (RBs/CAR) – Stewart could be out at least a week. Fozzy is the guy to own, for now. This could be a mess of a RBBC situation.
DeAndre Washington (RB/OAK) – Nice stash.
The post Week 3 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, September 17, 2016
Week 2 Preview
“Regression to the mean” is a phrase that is increasingly being used throughout the world of sports. Once just a term for statisticians, mainstream media such as ESPN and Sports Illustrated are latching onto the concept. Formally known as reversion to mediocrity, regression to the mean is a phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on one of its measurements, then the future measurements will tend to be closer to the average of its other measurements.
In Fantasy Football, the number of points that a player scores is a combination of luck in matchup/opportunities/etc. and skill which governs consistent success. When luck makes observed performance an imperfect measure of skill, the differences in performance exaggerate the underlying differences in abilities. Regression to the mean is not saying that a top player/team for multiple weeks in a row is “due” for a poor performance. Rather, those players should still perform above the long-term average of the league, just not reliably as well as in those previously superior performances. If you were to flip a coin 5 times and observe 5 “Tails” in a row, the next observed flip is no more likely to be “Heads” than it is to be “Tails”; however, over the long-term we expect the “Heads” to “Tails” ratio to regress to approximately 50%. In sports, the most practical notion that you can take away from the concept of regression to the mean is that people overvalue successful teams/players and undervalue the less successful ones.
From a week #2 fantasy perspective, do not expect Brandin Cooks, Eli Rodgers, Theo Riddick, Julius Thomas and others with high success to perform up to the same level that they did in Week 1, especially not consistently over time. The opposite is also true for players such as Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, and Gary Barnidge who should expect an increase in fantasy points. Another way that regression to the mean works is over an entire player’s career. Athletes at the top of their game now are likely to trend downward in the future as opposed to staying atop. So yes maybe drafting a Mark Ingram would’ve been better than Adrian Peterson who essentially only has one direction to go over the remainder of his career. This type of regression to the mean also explains things such as the Madden and Sports Illustrated curse (see here).
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Eli Manning & WR Odell Beckham J.R. (NYG) (vs. Saints)
Manning is the #2 Ranked QB through our projections app this week. Last season against the Saints, Eli Manning had 350yds and 6TDs. Improvement of that defense looks nonexistent based on the way they preformed last week against the Raiders. Manning’s top target Beckham J.R. had 130yds and 3 TDs in that same Saints game last year, so pair them up. Beckham J.R.‘s worst two performances last year came against the Dallas Cowboys, the team whom he faced in Week 1 this season. For that reason, Beckham carries value and would be a great trade target.
RB Jeremy Langford (CHI) (vs. Eagles)
Last season, the Texans (Langford’s Week1 opponent) allowed only 14pts a game to opposing RBs. The Eagles (Langford’s Week2 opponent) allowed 20pts a game in non-PPR formats. As mentioned in last week’s preview, most defenses vary little from year to year. Assuming that the Eagles rush defense is still weak, Langford is sure to do something with the 20 some times that the ball will be in his hands.
TE Gary Barnidge (CLE) (vs. Ravens)
There are two very good reasons why you can expect Barnidge to have a good game. The first reason is regression to the mean as explained above; the second reason is that Josh McCown will now be throwing to him as opposed to Robert Griffin III. Last year, Barnidge averaged 13.76pts per game when McCown started (7games). That is 61% of the total points he scored throughout the season. Two of those games were against the Ravens who typically shut down TEs. Take Barnidge in daily fantasy this week simply for his value and the lack thereof from the other TEs.
The post Week 2 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
Week 2 Sit Start Advice
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Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Gold Mining – Week 2
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Radio: Week 2 fantasy talk
Listen to both Russ Bliss and Smitty talk Week 2 fantasy football on Russ’ Weekly Red Zone fantasy football radio show on NBC Sports Radio 1060am.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Podcast: Episode 108: Week 2 Streaming and Victory Laps
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Monday, September 12, 2016
Week 2 Waiver Wire
Note: Spencer Ware is not likely available in most all leagues, but check, as the guy had 70 rushing and a score on the ground and over 100 receiving yards through the air in Week 1. He was also a breakout of ours this year, another reason he shouldn’t be available in your league. Ok, so here are the Week 2 Players to consider adding entering Week 2.
Week 2 Waiver Wire
- Willie Snead – A strong WR3/4 player in fantasy moving forward; he pulled in 9-of-9 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Raiders.
- Mohamed Sanu – A strong WR3/4 player in fantasy moving forward; he pulled in 5-of-8 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
- Theo Riddick – Riddick rushed seven times for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and he also caught 5-of-5 targets for 63 yards and another touchdown. He has RB2 appeal in all PPR formats.
- Chris Hogan – Not likely available in many leagues, it’s worth checking! He is the No. 2 in NE, and that means something, especially when Brady comes back from his suspension. In Week 1, Hogan grabbed 60 yards and a touchdown.
- Travis Benjamin – Keenan Allen is now out (ACL), so this guy is the team’s new No. 1 WR, and that makes him a solid WR3/4 moving forward.
- Will Fuller – He caught 5 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and should be owned as a WR3/4 moving forward.
- Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 264 passing yards and one touchdown in Week 1 at Arizona. Until Brady returns, he is a solid backup passer in deep leagues.
More
- Shane Vereen
- Anquan Boldin
- Alfred Morris
- Mike Wallace
- Cole Beasley
- Tyrell Williams
The post Week 2 Waiver Wire appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Saturday, September 10, 2016
Week 1 Preview
September has come and so too has football. By now, your fantasy team is likely drafted and you are just ready to sit back and watch some football. For now, your fantasy focus is exactly where it should be, solely on Week 1 as you anticipate the start of the season. Year after year fantasy football proves to be a game that is won on a week-by-week basis and that is why it is important to assemble your best roster each and every week.
I consider Week 1 to be the toughest NFL week to predict (but see here). There are new faces, people in new places, coaching changes, returns from injuries, and so many additional variables. Where you can normally draw upon recent performances to predict success, it is much more difficult to do that for a player or a team the first week. On the contrary, there are still many underlying trends that should be noted. Over the last 3 seasons, top players and top defenses tend to thrive Week 1.
The leading WRs during recent week #1’s have been: Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and A.J. Green.
For QBs: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Peyton Manning
For RBs: Carlos Hyde, Marshawn Lynch, and LeSean McCoy
Now these are just the players with the most points; but if you take a closer look at the extended version of this list for each position, there are very few “surprise” players. So whether it be daily fantasy or your weekly league, play your studs this first week and trust those studs to perform.
Another tendency is that teams with top defenses usually win Week 1. Take the top 5 fantasy pre-ranked defenses over the last 3 seasons (minus the 2015 Seahawks/Rams who played one another); 11/13 of those teams won their first matchup—that’s 85% (2016: Bills, Jets. 2015: Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, Bengals. 2014: Seahawks, 49ers, Bears, Texans, Broncos). Essentially, if you’re picking games and are unsure, take the better defense. From a fantasy perspective, this can illustrate the fact that the Defense (against) rank, which is a carryover from last year, actually does carry meaning into the new season with some slight variation to be expected.
One last tip to consider is to shy away from Rookie QBs/New starters and their teammates who may be affected by their performance. A lot of these guys haven’t had the chance to get into rhythms yet that simulate real game environments. Since 2010, there have been 13 rookie Quarterbacks to start Week 1. These QBs put up an average of 13.88 (median 13.9) standard fantasy points that game, and have a combined record of 4-9. A great example of someone to avoid Week 1 this season under this category is QB Carson Wentz and WR Jordan Mathews of the Eagles. Although the Eagles’ matchup against Cleveland always looks juicy, there are simply too many variables and an ugly history against rookie QBs to warrant a safe starting spot on your team.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
QB Matthew Stafford (DET) & WR Golden Tate (DET) (vs. Colts)
Last season, the Indianapolis Colts had the 24th ranked pass defense. To begin this season, the Colts will be without their best corner Vontae Davis who is out with an ankle injury. This injury makes an already bad defense worse and additionally only Cam Newton and Russell Wilson had a better finish to their season than did Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Golden Tate should be in this stack because he is Stafford’s most trusted returning player. The new Free Agent WR pickups (Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones) that will be sprinkled into the Lions offense this season likely lack the same chemistry that Stafford and Tate already have. Sure these new additions will perform well throughout the season but it may take some time to get them going and until they ride Tate.
RB DeAngelo Williams (PIT) (vs. Redskins)
While Le’Veon Bell is out due to suspension, the Steelers will feed Williams and only Williams the ball on running plays. It’s no secret what DeAngelo Williams was able accomplish last year while Bell was out and with little to no changes on the Steelers surrounding pieces, his 2015 success should be repeatable.
RB Latavius Murray (OAK) (vs. Saints)
One of the more underrated RBs this season, yet a Top 10 guy just last year. No matter your expectations for Murray, against a Saints run defense that has been horrendous for years, he could provide the top RB performance of week 1.
TE Jesse James (PIT) (vs. Redskins)
In the two games that Martavius Bryant was suspended last season, Ben Roethlisberger primarily counted on two receivers: Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. Miller had 10 catches for 99 yards and a TD in those two games. Miller retired at the conclusion of the season and free agent addition LaDarius Green has been placed on the Physically Unable to Preform (PUP list) leaving the door open for Jesse James to fill the Steelers TE1 role. When Antonio Brown isn’t open downfield, Big Ben will be looking to drop it off short and center, right where James should be throughout the game Monday night.
To win your league, don’t forget to check out our weekly gold mining series and our weekly lineup optimizer.
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Thursday, September 8, 2016
Week 1 Sit Start Advice
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Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Standard Scoring League Gold Mining – Week 1
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PPR League Gold Mining – Week 1
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Radio: Dak Prescott to breakout in 2016?
Take a listen/watch both Russ Bliss and Smitty talk up Dak Prescott heading into the 2016 fantasy football season. Is Dak Prescott set to breakout?
The post Radio: Dak Prescott to breakout in 2016? appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Podcast: Episode 107: Week 1 Streaming and Vacuuming Ears
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Monday, September 5, 2016
Win Your Daily Fantasy (DFS) League with this Lineup Optimizer
In this post, we use an OpenCPU app in R to determine the best possible players to pick in a daily/weekly fantasy football (DFS) league. The app includes the most accurate fantasy football projections available, and calculates a robust average of more sources of projections than any other website (see here for a list of the sources of projections). You can even choose how much weight to give each source. Based on your league settings, it determines which players you should pick to maximize your starting lineup’s projected points. It also allows you to change your risk tolerance to avoid picking risky players. Best of all, the app updates the selections automatically with your inputs, and you can download the data for yourself. So let’s get to it. Here’s a more thorough description:
To Use the DFS Optimizer App
To use the DFS Optimizer App, you will need to subscribe to FFA Insider (for more info, see here).
How it Works
First, we use a script to scrape player’s projected points from numerous sources using R. Second, we scrape player prices from various DFS websites. Third, based on the user’s league scoring settings, we calculate players’ projections using an average of the analysts’ projections (by default, the sources are weighted according to historical accuracy). You can choose which projection sources to include, modify the weights, and choose to calculate a mean, weighted average, or robust average. A robust average is less affected by outliers (crazy projections). Fourth, we calculate players’ risk levels, as defined by the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players’ projected points and rankings across analysts. Note that risk is standardized to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2.
Then, based on how many players you need for each position, your cap available, and your maximum risk tolerance, we use the Rglpk package to find your optimal lineup by selecting the remaining players available that maximize the lineup’s sum of projected points while meeting all of the constraints. For a similar execution using Excel’s Solver function, see here.
We also display the “dropoff” in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position. For more info on how projected cost is calculated, see here.
It is generally best to select players with minimal risk to ensure solid, if not superior, performance. We include players’ upside potential (ceiling) in the output, as defined by the players’ 90th percentile of their projected points across analysts.
Note that VOR, ADP, ECR, and AAV are not shown for weekly projections (only seasonal projections).
Strategy
User Inputs
Season: which season of projections to use.
Week: which week(s) of projections to use.
Number of Starters by Position: how many players in your starting lineup at each position.
League Scoring: source of DFS scoring settings.
Positions: which positions of players to include in calculations.
Calculation Type: the type of average to calculate: mean, weighted average, or robust average. By default, a weighted average is used with analysts weighted by their historical accuracy. You can modify the weights in the weighted average. The mean is equivalent to a weighted average where all analysts are equally weighted (weight = 1). The robust average gives less weight to outliers (crazy projections).
Analysts: Select which analysts to include and, if weighted average, the weights for each analyst (i.e., how much weight to give each source of projections when calculating projected points). For instance, if you want to exclude ESPN projections, you would give them a weight of 0. If you want to give Yahoo projections twice the weight of CBS, you would give Yahoo a weight of 2 and CBS a weight of 1. The default weights reflect historical accuracy (higher = more accurate). Note that FantasyPros shows a default weight of zero because we already include all of their sources in our projections, so it would be double counting to give them a weight above 0. You can certainly do so, though, if you’d like. FantasyFootballNerd also shows a default weight of zero because it uses the same projections as FantasyData.
Scoring Settings: specify the number of points for each statistical category and position.
Sidebar
Maximum Risk Tolerance: Selects the maximum risk allowed for any player to be considered for inclusion in the optimal starting lineup. Players’ risk levels have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (see below for more info on how risk is calculated).
Remaining Cap for Starters: How much cap you have remaining to spend on starters.
Players You Drafted: Select all players you’ve already picked (click “Pick” button next to player or type player’s name).
Other Players Drafted: Select players to exclude.
Output
Lineup with Highest Points: Players with highest sum of projected points within your league cap and risk tolerance.
Lineup with Highest Floor: Players with highest sum of projected floor within your league cap and risk tolerance.
Lineup with Highest Ceiling: Players with highest sum of projected ceiling within your league cap and risk tolerance.
Pick: Click “Pick” button next to player to add to “Players You Drafted”.
Rank: Overall rank by projected points.
Player (Team): Player name and team. Click player’s name to add to “Other Players Drafted”.
Pos: Position.
Points: Average projected points for a player across analysts.
Ceiling: A player’s upside, calculated as the 90th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
Floor: A player’s downside, calculated as the 10th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
Pos Rank: Position rank.
Dropoff: The “dropoff” in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position.
Risk: Risk of injury and degree of uncertainty of players’ projected points, calculated as the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players’ projected points and rankings across analysts. Standardized within position to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (higher values reflect greater risk).
Graph
Displays two types of graphs:
- A density plot of projected points by analyst
- Line plot of each optimal starting lineup by projected points, floor, and ceiling
A density plot shows, for each analyst, what proportion of players are projected to score a given number of points. Density plots can be helpful for comparing analysts and finding analysts with wildly different projections. In the line plots, the dot represents the average (mean, weighted average, or robust average) estimate of projected points for each player. The line shows the range from a player’s floor to ceiling.
The DFS Optimizer App
For the DFS Optimizer app, go to:
The post Win Your Daily Fantasy (DFS) League with this Lineup Optimizer appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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Friday, September 2, 2016
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Podcast: Episode 106: Draft Review and Questions and Answers
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The Former Star Wide Receiver That Is Being Ignored
It doesn’t take more than a little recency bias for fantasy owners to turn on a player. Stuck on a team that threw the least in the NFL last season, Mike Wallace disappointed fantasy owners.
Before his terrible 2016, Wallace finished as a top 27 wide receiver in five straight seasons. That includes two top 10 finishes. Wallace is now being selected as the 63rd WR off the board.
Change in Opportunity
Wallace leaves the Vikings who threw just 454 times last season for the Ravens who led the NFL in pass attempts with 676. Even if he maintains his market share of targets, his targets will rise considerably.
It would be hard to have any fantasy value on a team that passes as little as the Vikings did last season – especially when you’re not the top wide receiver. It’s also clear that Wallace’s talent wasn’t a match with Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill.
Despite being inefficient with Tannehill, Wallace still finished as a top 27 WR in both of his two seasons as a Dolphin. Joe Flacco’s deep ball could theoretically be a better match for Wallace.
The Competition
Despite a fantastic career, I’m betting against any 37-year-old wide receiver returning from a torn achilles. If Kobe Bryant struggled to be the same basketball player in a comparable situation, I’m betting against Steve Smith.
Kamar Aiken played well last season but I’m concerned about drafting a player who saw over 33 targets for the first time as a 26-year-old. If Aiken truly is the Ravens top wide receiver and is worthy of his current average draft position, why wasn’t he earning more opportunities earlier in his career?
With Mike Wallace, we have a player who has performed at a high level before, is a good athlete, and is simply coming off a bad season. He is being drafted after his competition. At a price of an inexpensive 13th round pick, Wallace is a good risk to take.
The post The Former Star Wide Receiver That Is Being Ignored appeared first on Apex Fantasy Football Money Leagues.
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Video: Fantasy Draft Prep Show
Below is our 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep Video Show, a video show created from Starters’ recent Red Zone 1060am NBC Sports Radio fantasy football show.
The post Video: Fantasy Draft Prep Show appeared first on Fantasy Football Starters 2016.
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